Quintin:
Ah, thats it. My conntrack entries are full and temporarily increasing it resolves the problem.
I'm glad we found the problem and the solution.
Your exit appears to be offline since 2018-01-20 20:00, expected downtime? https://atlas.torproject.org/#details/92E3764D5485DC4AC01178271FB5A8A2D90DA9...
What would be a reasonable conntrack limit for a tor exit?
The amount of states depend on your consensus weight (and probably exit policy), do you require a stateful packet filter?