commit 667d9a51b739f76808e5d84abca72be4b7f84dc6 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing@gmx.net> Date: Sat Mar 12 08:26:55 2011 +0100 Add detect-censorship.R script for #2718. --- task-2718/.gitignore | 3 ++ task-2718/README | 5 ++++ task-2718/detect-censorship.R | 52 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 60 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-) diff --git a/task-2718/.gitignore b/task-2718/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..673fa5f --- /dev/null +++ b/task-2718/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +direct-users.csv +*.pdf + diff --git a/task-2718/README b/task-2718/README new file mode 100644 index 0000000..807142a --- /dev/null +++ b/task-2718/README @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +Here's how you run the censorship detector prototype: + + $ wget https://metrics.torproject.org/csv/direct-users.csv + $ R --slave -f detect-censorship.R + diff --git a/task-2718/detect-censorship.R b/task-2718/detect-censorship.R new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f27e863 --- /dev/null +++ b/task-2718/detect-censorship.R @@ -0,0 +1,52 @@ +# Tor Censorship Detector +# Usage: R --slave < detect-censorship.R + +# Read CSV file containing daily user number estimates. +direct <- read.csv("direct-users.csv") + +# Start plotting everything to a single PDF (with multiple pages). +pdf("detect-censorship.pdf") + +# Convert the column containing daily Iranian users to a time series +# object, starting on the 263th day of 2009 with a frequency of 365 days. +# We're probably off by a day or two, but this should be fine for now. +all <- ts(direct$ir, start = c(2009, 263), frequency = 365) + +# Uncomment to print the time series values. +#print(all) + +# Let's try our approach for the last 365 days to see if we detect any +# blocking in that time period. In the final version of this script, we'd +# only have a single run with i = 1. +for (i in 365:1) { + idx <- length(direct$date) - i + + # Convert the daily Iranian users until i days in the past to a time + # series object. + x <- ts(direct$ir[1:idx], start = c(2009, 263), frequency = 365) + + # Apply an ARIMA(1, 0, 1) model to the time series. + x.fit = arima(x, order = c(1, 0, 1)) + + # Predict 10 dates ahead. + x.fore=predict(x.fit, n.ahead=10) + + # Calculate a lower bound. Here we use the predicted value minus three + # standard errors. + L = x.fore$pred - 3*x.fore$se + + # If the observed daily user number is lower than our predicted lower + # bound, plot the data and lower bound. + if (direct$ir[idx + 1] < L[1]) { + + # Plot the full time series. + ts.plot(all) + + # Add a line for the ten predicted values. + lines(L, col = "red", lwd = 2) + } +} + +# Close the PDF device. +dev.off() +