commit 85a545e66a8ba85d512e30b955c28c1b90e915ea Author: Karsten Loesing karsten.loesing@gmx.net Date: Sun Oct 30 07:11:56 2011 +0100

Add bridge stability report draft (#4255). --- task-4255/.gitignore | 11 + task-4255/README | 29 ++ task-4255/SimulateBridgeStability.java | 770 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ task-4255/report.bib | 26 ++ task-4255/report.tex | 414 +++++++++++++++++ task-4255/stability.R | 220 +++++++++ task-4255/stale-bridge-tarballs.csv | 760 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 7 files changed, 2230 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-)

diff --git a/task-4255/.gitignore b/task-4255/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4251d3d --- /dev/null +++ b/task-4255/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +*.pdf +*.log +stability.csv +stable-fingerprints-and-addresses +*.class +*.aux +*.bbl +*.blg +bridge-statuses/ +future-stability/ + diff --git a/task-4255/README b/task-4255/README new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7ff10c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/task-4255/README @@ -0,0 +1,29 @@ +Extract sanitized bridge network statuses (not server descriptors or +extra-info descriptors) to bridge-statuses/, e.g. +bridge-statuses/bridge-descriptors-2010-01/statuses/. Leaving server or +extra-info descriptors in the directory may lead to errors or at least +delay the evaluation significantly. + +Compile the Java class: + + $ javac SimulateBridgeStability.java + +Run the Java class: + + $ java SimulateBridgeStability + +Before re-running, delete the following files/directories to re-generate +them: + + - stable-fingerprints-and-addresses + - future-stability/ + - stability.csv + +Plot the results: + + $ R --slave -f stability.R + +Compile the report: + + $ pdflatex report.tex + diff --git a/task-4255/SimulateBridgeStability.java b/task-4255/SimulateBridgeStability.java new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6deb318 --- /dev/null +++ b/task-4255/SimulateBridgeStability.java @@ -0,0 +1,770 @@ +import java.io.*; +import java.text.*; +import java.util.*; + +/** + * Simulate different requirements for stable bridges that BridgeDB can + * use to include at least one such stable bridge in its responses to + * bridge users. + * + * The two bridge stability metrics used here are weighted mean time + * between address changes (WMTBAC) and weighted fractional uptime (WFU). + * Different requirements based on these two metrics are simulated by + * comparing the time on same address (TOSA) and weighted fractional + * uptime in the future (WFU). + */ +public class SimulateBridgeStability { + + /* Bridge history entry for the third step. Once we teach BridgeDB + * how to keep track of bridge stability, it's going to keep records + * similar to this one. */ + private static class BridgeHistoryElement { + /* Weighted uptime in seconds that is used for WFU calculation. */ + public long weightedUptime; + /* Weighted time in seconds that is used for WFU calculation. */ + public long weightedTime; + /* Weighted run length of previously used addresses or ports in + * seconds. */ + public double weightedRunLength; + /* Total run weights of previously used addresses or ports. */ + public double totalRunWeights; + /* Currently known address. */ + public String address; + /* Month string (YYYY-MM) that was used as input to the bridge + * descriptor sanitizer. */ + public String month; + /* Currently known port. */ + public int port; + /* Timestamp in milliseconds when this bridge was last seen with a + * different address or port. When adding a history entry, this + * timestamp is initialized with the publication time of the previous + * status. */ + public long lastSeenWithDifferentAddressAndPort; + /* Timestamp in milliseconds when this bridge was last seen with this + * address and port. */ + public long lastSeenWithThisAddressAndPort; + } + + /* Run the analysis in three steps: + * + * In the first step, we parse sanitized bridge network statuses from + * first to last to determine stable addresses that have changed by the + * sanitizing process only. In the second step, we parse statuses from + * last to first to calculate TOSA and future WFU, and write future + * stability metrics to disk as one file per network status in + * future-stability/$filename. In the third step, we parse the statuses + * again from first to last, calculate past stability metrics for all + * bridges, select stable bridges, look up future stability of these + * bridges, and write results to stability.csv. + */ + public static void main(String[] args) throws Exception { + + /* Measure how long this execution takes. */ + long started = System.currentTimeMillis(); + + /* Prepare timestamp parsing. */ + SimpleDateFormat isoFormat = new SimpleDateFormat( + "yyyy-MM-dd HH:mm:ss"); + isoFormat.setTimeZone(TimeZone.getTimeZone("UTC")); + SimpleDateFormat statusFileNameFormat = new SimpleDateFormat( + "yyyyMMdd-HHmmss"); + statusFileNameFormat.setTimeZone(TimeZone.getTimeZone("UTC")); + SimpleDateFormat futureStabilityFileNameFormat = new SimpleDateFormat( + "yyyy-MM-dd-HH-mm-ss"); + futureStabilityFileNameFormat.setTimeZone(TimeZone.getTimeZone( + "UTC")); + + /* Define analysis interval. */ + String analyzeFrom = "2010-07-01 00:00:00", + analyzeTo = "2011-06-30 23:00:00"; + long analyzeFromMillis = isoFormat.parse(analyzeFrom).getTime(), + analyzeToMillis = isoFormat.parse(analyzeTo).getTime(); + + /* Scan existing status files. */ + SortedSet<File> allStatuses = new TreeSet<File>(); + Stack<File> files = new Stack<File>(); + files.add(new File("bridge-statuses")); + while (!files.isEmpty()) { + File file = files.pop(); + if (file.isDirectory()) { + files.addAll(Arrays.asList(file.listFiles())); + } else { + if (file.getName().endsWith( + "-4A0CCD2DDC7995083D73F5D667100C8A5831F16D")) { + allStatuses.add(file); + } + } + } + System.out.println("Scanning " + allStatuses.size() + " bridge " + + "network statuses."); + + /* Parse statuses in forward order to detect stable fingerprint/ + * address combinations to correct some of the IP address changes from + * one month to the next. */ + SortedSet<String> stableFingerprintsAndAddresses = + new TreeSet<String>(); + File stableFingerprintsAndAddressesFile = + new File("stable-fingerprints-and-addresses"); + if (stableFingerprintsAndAddressesFile.exists()) { + System.out.println("Reading stable fingerprints and addresses from " + + "disk..."); + BufferedReader br = new BufferedReader(new FileReader( + stableFingerprintsAndAddressesFile)); + String line; + while ((line = br.readLine()) != null) { + stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.add(line); + } + br.close(); + } else { + System.out.println("Parsing bridge network statuses and writing " + + "stable fingerprints and addresses to disk..."); + Map<String, Long> firstSeenFingerprintAndAddress = + new HashMap<String, Long>(); + for (File status : allStatuses) { + Set<String> fingerprints = new HashSet<String>(); + BufferedReader br = new BufferedReader(new FileReader(status)); + String line, rLine = null; + while ((line = br.readLine()) != null) { + if (line.startsWith("r ")) { + String[] parts = line.split(" "); + if (parts.length < 8) { + System.out.println("Illegal line '" + rLine + "' in " + + status + ". Skipping status."); + break; + } + String fingerprint = parts[2]; + String address = parts[6]; + String fingerprintAndAddress = fingerprint + " " + address; + if (stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.contains( + fingerprintAndAddress)) { + continue; + } else { + String date = parts[4]; + String time = parts[5]; + long published = isoFormat.parse(date + " " + time). + getTime(); + if (!firstSeenFingerprintAndAddress.containsKey( + fingerprintAndAddress)) { + firstSeenFingerprintAndAddress.put(fingerprintAndAddress, + published); + } else if (published - firstSeenFingerprintAndAddress.get( + fingerprintAndAddress) > 36L * 60L * 60L * 1000L) { + stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.add( + fingerprintAndAddress); + } + } + } + } + br.close(); + } + BufferedWriter bw = new BufferedWriter(new FileWriter( + stableFingerprintsAndAddressesFile)); + for (String stableFingerprintAndAddress : + stableFingerprintsAndAddresses) { + bw.write(stableFingerprintAndAddress + "\n"); + } + bw.close(); + } + System.out.println("We know about " + + stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.size() + " stable fingerprints " + + "and addresses."); + + /* Now parse statuses in reverse direction to calculate time until + * next address change and weighted fractional uptime for all bridges. + * Whenever we find a bridge published in a month for the first time, + * we look if we identified the bridge fingerprint and address (either + * new or old) as stable before. If we did, ignore this address + * change. */ + File futureStabilityDirectory = new File("future-stability"); + if (futureStabilityDirectory.exists()) { + System.out.println("Not overwriting files in " + + futureStabilityDirectory.getAbsolutePath()); + } else { + + /* Track weighted uptime and total weighted time in a long[2]. */ + SortedMap<String, long[]> wfuHistory = + new TreeMap<String, long[]>(); + + /* Track timestamps of next address changes in a long. */ + SortedMap<String, Long> nacHistory = new TreeMap<String, Long>(); + + /* Store the last known r lines by fingerprint to be able to decide + * whether a bridge has changed its IP address. */ + Map<String, String> lastKnownRLines = new HashMap<String, String>(); + + /* Parse bridge network statuses in reverse order. */ + SortedSet<File> allStatusesReverseOrder = + new TreeSet<File>(Collections.reverseOrder()); + allStatusesReverseOrder.addAll(allStatuses); + long nextWeightingInterval = -1L, lastStatusPublicationMillis = -1L; + for (File status : allStatusesReverseOrder) { + + /* Parse status publication time from file name. */ + long statusPublicationMillis = statusFileNameFormat.parse( + status.getName().substring(0, "yyyyMMdd-HHmmss".length())). + getTime(); + + /* We're just looking at the first status outside the analysis + * interval. Stop parsing here. */ + if (statusPublicationMillis < analyzeFromMillis) { + break; + } + + /* Calculate the seconds since the last parsed status. If this is + * the first status or we haven't seen a status for more than 60 + * minutes, assume 60 minutes. */ + long secondsSinceLastStatusPublication = + lastStatusPublicationMillis < 0L || + lastStatusPublicationMillis - statusPublicationMillis + > 60L * 60L * 1000L ? 60L * 60L + : (lastStatusPublicationMillis - statusPublicationMillis) + / 1000L; + lastStatusPublicationMillis = statusPublicationMillis; + + /* Before parsing the next bridge network status, see if 12 hours + * have passed since we last discounted wfu history values. If + * so, discount variables for all known bridges by factor 0.95 (or + * 19/20 since these are long integers) and remove those bridges + * with a weighted fractional uptime below 1/10000 from the + * history. */ + long weightingInterval = statusPublicationMillis + / (12L * 60L * 60L * 1000L); + if (nextWeightingInterval < 0L) { + nextWeightingInterval = weightingInterval; + } + while (weightingInterval < nextWeightingInterval) { + Set<String> bridgesToRemove = new HashSet<String>(); + for (Map.Entry<String, long[]> e : wfuHistory.entrySet()) { + long[] w = e.getValue(); + w[0] *= 19L; + w[0] /= 20L; + w[1] *= 19L; + w[1] /= 20L; + if (((10000L * w[0]) / w[1]) < 1L) { + bridgesToRemove.add(e.getKey()); + } + } + for (String fingerprint : bridgesToRemove) { + wfuHistory.remove(fingerprint); + } + nextWeightingInterval -= 1L; + } + + /* Increment total weighted time for all bridges by seconds + * since the last status was published. */ + for (long[] w : wfuHistory.values()) { + w[1] += secondsSinceLastStatusPublication; + } + + /* If the status falls within our analysis interval, write future + * WFUs and TOSAs for all running bridges to disk. */ + BufferedWriter bw = null; + if (statusPublicationMillis <= analyzeToMillis) { + File futureStabilityFile = new File("future-stability", + futureStabilityFileNameFormat.format( + statusPublicationMillis)); + futureStabilityFile.getParentFile().mkdirs(); + bw = new BufferedWriter(new FileWriter(futureStabilityFile)); + } + + + /* Parse r lines of all bridges with the Running flag from the + * current bridge network status. */ + BufferedReader br = new BufferedReader(new FileReader(status)); + String line, rLine = null; + SortedMap<String, String> runningBridges = + new TreeMap<String, String>(); + while ((line = br.readLine()) != null) { + if (line.startsWith("r ")) { + rLine = line; + } else if (line.startsWith("s ") && line.contains(" Running")) { + String[] parts = rLine.split(" "); + if (parts.length < 8) { + System.out.println("Illegal line '" + rLine + "' in " + + status + ". Skipping line."); + continue; + } + String fingerprint = parts[2]; + runningBridges.put(fingerprint, rLine); + } + } + br.close(); + + /* If this status doesn't contain a single bridge with the Running + * flag, ignore it. This is a problem with the bridge authority + * and doesn't mean we should consider all bridges as down. */ + if (runningBridges.isEmpty()) { + continue; + } + + /* Find out if a bridge changed its IP address or port. */ + for (Map.Entry<String, String> e : runningBridges.entrySet()) { + String fingerprint = e.getKey(); + String brLine = e.getValue(); + String[] brParts = brLine.split(" "); + + /* Increment weighted uptime by seconds since last status + * publication time. */ + if (!wfuHistory.containsKey(fingerprint)) { + wfuHistory.put(fingerprint, new long[] { + secondsSinceLastStatusPublication, + secondsSinceLastStatusPublication }); + } else { + wfuHistory.get(fingerprint)[0] += + secondsSinceLastStatusPublication; + } + + /* Check for address or port change. */ + String address = brParts[6]; + String port = brParts[7]; + boolean sameAddressAndPort = false; + if (lastKnownRLines.containsKey(fingerprint)) { + String[] lastKnownRLineParts = + lastKnownRLines.get(fingerprint).split(" "); + String lastAddress = lastKnownRLineParts[6]; + String lastPort = lastKnownRLineParts[7]; + if (!port.equals(lastPort)) { + /* The port changed. It doesn't matter whether the + * address changed or not. */ + } else if (address.equals(lastAddress)) { + /* The bridge's address and port are still the same. */ + sameAddressAndPort = true; + } else { + String month = brParts[4].substring(0, "yyyy-MM".length()); + String lastMonth = lastKnownRLineParts[4].substring(0, + "yyyy-MM".length()); + if (!lastMonth.equals(month) && + stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.contains( + fingerprint + " " + address) && + stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.contains( + fingerprint + " " + lastAddress)) { + /* The last time we saw this bridge was in a different + * month. This bridge was seen with both addresses in + * intervals of 36 hours or more. Consider this + * address change an artifact from the sanitizing + * process. */ + sameAddressAndPort = true; + } else { + /* Either the month did not change or the address or + * port did change. */ + } + } + } else { + /* We're seeing this bridge for the first time. */ + } + if (!sameAddressAndPort) { + nacHistory.put(fingerprint, statusPublicationMillis); + } + lastKnownRLines.put(fingerprint, brLine); + + /* Write WFU and TOSA to disk. */ + if (bw != null) { + long[] wfu = wfuHistory.get(fingerprint); + long tosa = (nacHistory.get(fingerprint) + - statusPublicationMillis) / 1000L; + bw.write(fingerprint + " " + tosa + " " + + ((10000L * wfu[0]) / wfu[1]) + " " + "\n"); + } + } + br.close(); + if (bw != null) { + bw.close(); + } + } + } + + /* Finally, parse statuses in forward order to calculate weighted mean + * time between address change (WMTBAC) and weighted fractional uptime + * (WFU) and simulate how stable bridges meeting given requirements + * are. */ + File stabilityFile = new File("stability.csv"); + if (stabilityFile.exists()) { + System.out.println("Not overwriting output file " + + stabilityFile.getAbsolutePath()); + } else { + + /* Run the simulation for the following WFU and WMTBAC + * percentiles: */ + List<Integer> wfuPercentiles = new ArrayList<Integer>(); + for (int l : new int[] { 0, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 }) { + wfuPercentiles.add(l); + } + List<Integer> wmtbacPercentiles = new ArrayList<Integer>(); + for (int l : new int[] { 0, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 }) { + wmtbacPercentiles.add(l); + } + + /* Add column headers to output file. */ + SortedSet<String> columns = new TreeSet<String>(); + columns.add("running"); + columns.add("minwta"); + columns.add("minwtb"); + for (int wfuPercentile : wfuPercentiles) { + columns.add("minwfua" + wfuPercentile + "wfu"); + columns.add("minwfub" + wfuPercentile + "wfu"); + for (int wmtbacPercentile : wmtbacPercentiles) { + String simulation = wfuPercentile + "wfu" + wmtbacPercentile + + "wmtbac"; + columns.add("stablebridge" + simulation); + columns.add("perc15wfu" + simulation); + columns.add("perc10wfu" + simulation); + columns.add("perc5wfu" + simulation); + columns.add("perc15tosa" + simulation); + columns.add("perc10tosa" + simulation); + columns.add("perc5tosa" + simulation); + } + } + for (int wmtbacPercentile : wmtbacPercentiles) { + columns.add("minwmtbaca" + wmtbacPercentile + "wmtbac"); + columns.add("minwmtbacb" + wmtbacPercentile + "wmtbac"); + } + BufferedWriter bw = new BufferedWriter(new FileWriter( + stabilityFile)); + bw.write("time"); + for (String column : columns) { + bw.write("," + column); + } + bw.write("\n"); + + SortedMap<String, BridgeHistoryElement> history = + new TreeMap<String, BridgeHistoryElement>(); + + /* Parse previously exported network status entries again, but this + * time in forward order. */ + long nextWeightingInterval = -1L, lastStatusPublicationMillis = -1L; + for (File status : allStatuses) { + + /* Parse status publication time from file name. */ + long statusPublicationMillis = statusFileNameFormat.parse( + status.getName().substring(0, "yyyyMMdd-HHmmss".length())). + getTime(); + + /* Calculate the seconds since the last parsed status. If this is + * the first status or we haven't seen a status for more than 60 + * minutes, assume 60 minutes. */ + long secondsSinceLastStatusPublication = + lastStatusPublicationMillis < 0L || + statusPublicationMillis - lastStatusPublicationMillis + > 60L * 60L * 1000L ? 60L * 60L + : (statusPublicationMillis - lastStatusPublicationMillis) + / 1000L; + + /* Before parsing the next bridge network status, see if 12 hours + * have passed since we last discounted wfu and wmtbac history + * values. If so, discount variables for all known bridges by + * factor 0.95 (or 19/20 since these are long integers) and remove + * those bridges with a weighted fractional uptime below 1/10000 + * from the history. Also, discount weighted run length and total + * run weights for all known relays by factor 0.95. */ + long weightingInterval = statusPublicationMillis + / (12L * 60L * 60L * 1000L); + if (nextWeightingInterval < 0L) { + nextWeightingInterval = weightingInterval; + } + while (weightingInterval > nextWeightingInterval) { + Set<String> bridgesToRemove = new HashSet<String>(); + for (Map.Entry<String, BridgeHistoryElement> e : + history.entrySet()) { + BridgeHistoryElement historyElement = e.getValue(); + historyElement.weightedUptime = + (historyElement.weightedUptime * 19L) / 20L; + historyElement.weightedTime = + (historyElement.weightedTime * 19L) / 20L; + if (((10000L * historyElement.weightedUptime) + / historyElement.weightedTime) < 1L) { + String fingerprint = e.getKey(); + bridgesToRemove.add(fingerprint); + } + historyElement.weightedRunLength *= 0.95; + historyElement.totalRunWeights *= 0.95; + } + for (String fingerprint : bridgesToRemove) { + history.remove(fingerprint); + } + nextWeightingInterval += 1L; + } + + /* Parse r lines of all bridges with the Running flag from the + * current bridge network status. */ + BufferedReader br = new BufferedReader(new FileReader(status)); + String line, rLine = null; + SortedMap<String, String> runningBridges = + new TreeMap<String, String>(); + while ((line = br.readLine()) != null) { + if (line.startsWith("r ")) { + rLine = line; + } else if (line.startsWith("s ") && line.contains(" Running")) { + String[] parts = rLine.split(" "); + if (parts.length < 8) { + System.out.println("Illegal line '" + rLine + "' in " + + status + ". Skipping line."); + continue; + } + String fingerprint = parts[2]; + runningBridges.put(fingerprint, rLine); + } + } + br.close(); + + /* If this status doesn't contain a single bridge with the Running + * flag, ignore it. This is a problem with the bridge authority + * and doesn't mean we should consider all bridges as down. */ + if (runningBridges.isEmpty()) { + continue; + } + + /* Add new bridges to history or update history if it already + * contains a bridge. */ + for (Map.Entry<String, String> e : runningBridges.entrySet()) { + String fingerprint = e.getKey(); + String brLine = e.getValue(); + String[] brParts = brLine.split(" "); + String address = brParts[6]; + int port = Integer.parseInt(brParts[7]); + String month = brParts[4].substring(0, "yyyy-MM".length()); + BridgeHistoryElement bhe = null; + if (!history.containsKey(fingerprint)) { + + /* Add new bridge to history. */ + bhe = new BridgeHistoryElement(); + bhe.lastSeenWithDifferentAddressAndPort = + lastStatusPublicationMillis; + history.put(fingerprint, bhe); + } else { + + /* Update bridge in history. */ + bhe = history.get(fingerprint); + + /* If the port changed, ... */ + if (port != bhe.port || + + /* ... or the address changed and ... */ + (!address.equals(bhe.address) && + + /* ... either the month is the same ... */ + (month.equals(bhe.month) || + + /* ... or this address is not stable ... */ + !stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.contains( + fingerprint + " " + address) || + + /* ... or the last address is not stable, ... */ + !stableFingerprintsAndAddresses.contains( + fingerprint + " " + bhe.address)))) { + + /* ... assume that the bridge changed its address or + * port. */ + bhe.weightedRunLength += (double) + ((bhe.lastSeenWithThisAddressAndPort - + bhe.lastSeenWithDifferentAddressAndPort) / 1000L); + bhe.totalRunWeights += 1.0; + bhe.lastSeenWithDifferentAddressAndPort = + bhe.lastSeenWithThisAddressAndPort; + } + } + + /* Regardless of whether the bridge is new, kept or changed + * its address and port, raise its WFU times and note its + * current address, month, and port, and that we saw it using + * them. */ + bhe.weightedUptime += secondsSinceLastStatusPublication; + bhe.weightedTime += secondsSinceLastStatusPublication; + bhe.lastSeenWithThisAddressAndPort = statusPublicationMillis; + bhe.address = address; + bhe.month = month; + bhe.port = port; + } + + /* Update weighted times (not uptimes) of non-running bridges. */ + for (Map.Entry<String, BridgeHistoryElement> e : + history.entrySet()) { + String fingerprint = e.getKey(); + if (!runningBridges.containsKey(fingerprint)) { + BridgeHistoryElement bhe = e.getValue(); + bhe.weightedTime += secondsSinceLastStatusPublication; + } + } + + /* Prepare writing results. */ + Map<String, String> results = new HashMap<String, String>(); + results.put("running", "" + runningBridges.size()); + + /* If we reached the analysis interval, read previously calculated + * future WFUs and TOSAs from disk and run the simulations. */ + Map<String, Long> fwfus = new HashMap<String, Long>(), + tosas = new HashMap<String, Long>(); + File futureStabilityFile = new File("future-stability", + futureStabilityFileNameFormat.format( + statusPublicationMillis)); + if (statusPublicationMillis < analyzeFromMillis || + statusPublicationMillis > analyzeToMillis) { + /* Outside of our analysis interval. Skip simulation. */ + } else if (!futureStabilityFile.exists()) { + System.out.println("Could not find file " + + futureStabilityFile + ". Skipping simulation!"); + } else { + BufferedReader fsBr = new BufferedReader(new FileReader( + futureStabilityFile)); + String fsLine; + while ((fsLine = fsBr.readLine()) != null) { + String[] fsParts = fsLine.split(" "); + tosas.put(fsParts[0], Long.parseLong(fsParts[1])); + fwfus.put(fsParts[0], Long.parseLong(fsParts[2])); + } + fsBr.close(); + + /* Prepare calculating thresholds for selecting stable bridges + * in simulations. */ + List<Long> totalWeightedTimes = new ArrayList<Long>(); + for (String fingerprint : runningBridges.keySet()) { + totalWeightedTimes.add(history.get(fingerprint).weightedTime); + } + Collections.sort(totalWeightedTimes); + long minimumTotalWeightedTime = totalWeightedTimes.get( + totalWeightedTimes.size() / 8); + results.put("minwta", String.valueOf(minimumTotalWeightedTime)); + if (minimumTotalWeightedTime > 8L * 24L * 60L * 60L) { + minimumTotalWeightedTime = 8L * 24L * 60L * 60L; + } + results.put("minwtb", String.valueOf(minimumTotalWeightedTime)); + List<Long> weightedFractionalUptimesFamiliar = + new ArrayList<Long>(); + for (String fingerprint : runningBridges.keySet()) { + BridgeHistoryElement bhe = history.get(fingerprint); + if (bhe.weightedTime >= minimumTotalWeightedTime) { + long weightedFractionalUptime = + (10000L * bhe.weightedUptime) / bhe.weightedTime; + weightedFractionalUptimesFamiliar.add( + weightedFractionalUptime); + } + } + Collections.sort(weightedFractionalUptimesFamiliar); + List<Long> wmtbacs = new ArrayList<Long>(); + for (String fingerprint : runningBridges.keySet()) { + BridgeHistoryElement bhe = history.get(fingerprint); + double totalRunLength = bhe.weightedRunLength + (double) + ((bhe.lastSeenWithThisAddressAndPort - + bhe.lastSeenWithDifferentAddressAndPort) / 1000L); + double totalWeights = bhe.totalRunWeights + 1.0; + long wmtbac = totalWeights < 0.0001 ? 0L + : (long) (totalRunLength / totalWeights); + wmtbacs.add(wmtbac); + } + Collections.sort(wmtbacs); + + /* Run simulation for the bridges in the current status for + * various WFU and WMTBAC percentiles. */ + for (int wmtbacPercentile : wmtbacPercentiles) { + for (int wfuPercentile : wfuPercentiles) { + String simulation = wfuPercentile + "wfu" + wmtbacPercentile + + "wmtbac"; + long minimumWeightedMeanTimeBetweenAddressChange = + wmtbacs.get((wmtbacPercentile * wmtbacs.size()) / 100); + results.put("minwmtbaca" + wmtbacPercentile + "wmtbac", + String.valueOf( + minimumWeightedMeanTimeBetweenAddressChange)); + if (minimumWeightedMeanTimeBetweenAddressChange > + 30L * 24L * 60L * 60L) { + minimumWeightedMeanTimeBetweenAddressChange = + 30L * 24L * 60L * 60L; + } + results.put("minwmtbacb" + wmtbacPercentile + "wmtbac", + String.valueOf( + minimumWeightedMeanTimeBetweenAddressChange)); + long minimumWeightedFractionalUptime = + weightedFractionalUptimesFamiliar.get((wfuPercentile + * weightedFractionalUptimesFamiliar.size()) / 100); + results.put("minwfua" + wfuPercentile + "wfu", + String.valueOf(minimumWeightedFractionalUptime)); + if (minimumWeightedFractionalUptime > 9800) { + minimumWeightedFractionalUptime = 9800; + } + results.put("minwfub" + wfuPercentile + "wfu", + String.valueOf(minimumWeightedFractionalUptime)); + List<Long> fwfuList = new ArrayList<Long>(), + tosaList = new ArrayList<Long>(); + Set<String> selectedBridges = new HashSet<String>(); + for (String fingerprint : runningBridges.keySet()) { + BridgeHistoryElement bhe = history.get(fingerprint); + double totalRunLength = bhe.weightedRunLength + (double) + ((bhe.lastSeenWithThisAddressAndPort - + bhe.lastSeenWithDifferentAddressAndPort) / 1000L); + double totalWeights = bhe.totalRunWeights + 1.0; + long wmtbac = totalWeights < 0.0001 ? 0L + : (long) (totalRunLength / totalWeights); + if (wmtbac < minimumWeightedMeanTimeBetweenAddressChange) { + continue; + } + if (wfuPercentile > 0 && + bhe.weightedTime < minimumTotalWeightedTime) { + continue; + } + long weightedFractionalUptime = + (10000L * bhe.weightedUptime) / bhe.weightedTime; + if (weightedFractionalUptime < + minimumWeightedFractionalUptime) { + continue; + } + long fwfu = fwfus.get(fingerprint); + fwfuList.add(fwfu); + long tosa = tosas.get(fingerprint); + tosaList.add(tosa); + selectedBridges.add(fingerprint); + } + /* Calculate percentiles of future WFU and of TOSA as the + * simulation results. */ + results.put("stablebridge" + simulation, + String.valueOf(selectedBridges.size())); + if (tosaList.size() > 0L) { + Collections.sort(tosaList); + results.put("perc15tosa" + simulation, + "" + tosaList.get((15 * tosaList.size()) / 100)); + results.put("perc10tosa" + simulation, + "" + tosaList.get((10 * tosaList.size()) / 100)); + results.put("perc5tosa" + simulation, + "" + tosaList.get((5 * tosaList.size()) / 100)); + } + if (fwfuList.size() > 0) { + Collections.sort(fwfuList); + results.put("perc15wfu" + simulation, + "" + fwfuList.get((15 * fwfuList.size()) / 100)); + results.put("perc10wfu" + simulation, + "" + fwfuList.get((10 * fwfuList.size()) / 100)); + results.put("perc5wfu" + simulation, + "" + fwfuList.get((5 * fwfuList.size()) / 100)); + } + } + } + } + + /* Write results, regardless of whether we ran simulations or + * not. */ + SortedSet<String> missingColumns = new TreeSet<String>(); + for (String resultColumn : results.keySet()) { + if (!columns.contains(resultColumn)) { + missingColumns.add(resultColumn); + } + } + if (!missingColumns.isEmpty()) { + System.out.println("We are missing the following columns:"); + for (String missingColumn : missingColumns) { + System.out.print(" " + missingColumn); + } + System.out.println(". Ignoring."); + } + bw.write(isoFormat.format(statusPublicationMillis)); + for (String column : columns) { + if (results.containsKey(column)) { + bw.write("," + results.get(column)); + } else { + bw.write(",NA"); + } + } + bw.write("\n"); + lastStatusPublicationMillis = statusPublicationMillis; + } + bw.close(); + } + } +} + diff --git a/task-4255/report.bib b/task-4255/report.bib new file mode 100644 index 0000000..427e27c --- /dev/null +++ b/task-4255/report.bib @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +@misc{dirspec, + author = {Roger Dingledine and Nick Mathewson}, + title = {Tor directory protocol, version 3}, + note = {\url{https://gitweb.torproject.org/tor.git/blob_plain/HEAD:/doc/spec/dir-spec.txt..., +} + +@techreport{loesing2011analysis, + title = {An Analysis of {Tor} Relay Stability}, + author = {Karsten Loesing}, + institution = {The Tor Project}, + year = {2011}, + month = {June}, + type = {Technical Report}, + note = {\url{https://metrics.torproject.org/papers/relay-stability-2011-06-30.pdf%7D%7D, +} + +@techreport{loesing2011overview, + title = {Overview of Statistical Data in the {Tor} Network}, + author = {Karsten Loesing}, + institution = {The Tor Project}, + year = {2011}, + month = {March}, + type = {Technical Report}, + note = {\url{https://metrics.torproject.org/papers/data-2011-03-14.pdf%7D%7D, +} + diff --git a/task-4255/report.tex b/task-4255/report.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0dfd437 --- /dev/null +++ b/task-4255/report.tex @@ -0,0 +1,414 @@ +\documentclass{article} +\usepackage{url} +\usepackage[pdftex]{graphicx} +\usepackage{graphics} +\usepackage{color} +\begin{document} +\title{An Analysis of Tor Bridge Stability\ +{\large --- Making BridgeDB give out at least one stable bridge per +user ---}} +\author{Karsten Loesing\{\tt karsten@torproject.org}} + +\maketitle + +\section{Introducing the instable bridges problem} + +As of October 2011, the Tor network consists of a few hundred thousand +clients, 2,400 public relays, and about 600 non-public bridge relays. +Bridge relays (in the following: bridges) are entry points which are not +publicly listed to prevent censors from blocking access to the Tor +network. +Censored users request a small number of typically three bridge addresses +from the BridgeDB service via email or http and then connect to the Tor +network only via these bridges. +If all bridges that a user knows about suddenly stop working, the user +needs to request a new set of bridge addresses from BridgeDB. +However, BridgeDB memorizes the user's email or IP address and only gives +out new bridges every 24 hours to slow down enumeration attempts. +The result is that a user who is unlucky enough to receive only unreliable +bridges from BridgeDB won't be able to connect to the Tor network for up +to 24 hours before requesting a new set of bridges. + +In this report we propose that BridgeDB keeps bridge stability records, +similar to how the directory authorities keep relay stability records, and +includes at least one stable bridge in its responses to users. +In fact, BridgeDB currently attempts to do this by including at least one +bridge with the Stable flag assigned by the bridge authority in its +results. +This approach is broken for two reasons: +The first reason is that the algorithm that the bridge authority uses to +assign the Stable flag is broken to the extent that almost every bridge +has the Stable flag assigned. +The second reason is that the Stable flag was designed for clients to +select relays for long-running streams, not for BridgeDB to select +reliable entry points into the Tor network. +A better metric for stable bridges would be based on bridge uptime and on +the frequency of IP address changes. +We propose such a metric and evaluate its effectiveness for selecting +stable bridges based on archived bridge directories. + +\section{Defining a new bridge stability metric} +\label{sec:defining} + +The directory authorities implement a few relay stability metrics to +decide which of the relays to assign the Guard and Stable +flag~\cite{dirspec, loesing2011analysis}. +The requirements for stable bridges that we propose here are similar to +the entry guard requirements. +That is, stable bridges should have a higher fractional uptime than +non-stable ones. +Further, a stable bridge should be available under the same IP address and +TCP port. +Otherwise, bridge users who only know a bridge address won't be able to +connect to the bridge once it changes its address or port. +We propose the following requirements for a bridge to be considered +stable in the style of the Guard and Stable flag definition: + +\label{def:bridgestability} +\begin{quote} +A bridge is considered stable if its \emph{Weighted Mean Time Between +Address Change} is at least the median for known active bridges or at +least 30~days, if it is `familiar', and if its \emph{Weighted Fractional +Uptime} is at least the median for `familiar' active bridges or at least +98~%. +A bridge is `familiar' if 1/8 of all active bridges have appeared more +recently than it, or if it has been around for a \emph{Weighted Time} of +8~days. +\end{quote} + +This bridge stability definition contains three main requirements: + +\begin{itemize} +\item The \emph{Weighted Mean Time Between Address Change (WMTBAC)} +metric is used to track the time that a bridge typically uses the same IP +address and TCP port. +The (unweighted) MTBAC measures the average time between last using +address and port $a_0$ to last using address and port $a_1$. +This metric is weighted to put more emphasis on recent events than on past +events. +Therefore, past address sessions are discounted by factor $0.95$ every +12~hours. +The current session is not discounted, so that a WMTBAC value of 30 days +can be reached after 30 days at the earliest. +\item The \emph{Weighted Fractional Uptime (WFU)} metric measures the +fraction of bridge uptime in the past. +Similar to WMTBAC, WFU values are discounted by factor $0.95$ every +12~hours, but in this case including the current uptime session. +\item The \emph{Weighted Time (WT)} metric is used to calculate a bridge's +WFU and to decide whether a bridge is around long enough to be considered +`familiar.' +WT is discounted similar to WMTBAC and WFU, so that a WT of 8 days can be +reached after around 16 days at the earliest. +\end{itemize} + +All three requirements consist of a dynamic part that depends on the +stability of other bridges (e.g., ``A bridge is familiar if 1/8 of all +active bridges have appeared more recently than it, \ldots'') and a static +part that is independent of other bridges (e.g., ``\ldots or if it has +been around for a Weighted Time of 8 days.''). +The dynamic parts ensure that a certain fraction of bridges is considered +stable even in a rather instable network. +The static parts ensures that rather stable bridges are not excluded even +when most other bridges in the network are stable. + +\section{Extending BridgeDB to track bridge stability} + +There are at least two code bases that could be extended to track bridge +stability and include at least one stable bridge in BridgeDB results: the +bridge authority and BridgeDB. +The decision for extending either code base affects the available data +for tracking bridge stability and is therefore discussed here. + +The bridge authority maintains a list of all active bridges. +Bridges register at the bridge authority when joining the network, and the +bridge authority periodically performs reachability tests to confirm that +a bridge is still active. +The bridge authority takes snapshots of the list of active bridges every +30~minutes and copies these snapshots to BridgeDB. +BridgeDB parses these half-hourly snapshots and gives out bridges to users +based on the most recently known snapshot. + +The bridge stability history can be implemented either in the bridge +authority code or in BridgeDB. +On the one hand, an implementation in BridgeDB has the disadvantage that +bridge reachability data has a resolution of 30 minutes whereas the bridge +authority would learn about bridges joining or leaving the network +immediately. +On the other hand, the bridge stability information is not used by +anything in the Tor software, but only by BridgeDB. +Implementing this feature in BridgeDB makes more sense from a software +architecture point of view. +In the following we assume that BridgeDB will track bridge stability based +on half-hourly snapshots of active bridge lists, the bridge network +statuses. + +\section{Simulating bridge stability using archived data} + +We can analyze how BridgeDB would track bridge stability and give out +stable bridges by using archived bridge descriptors. +These archives contain the same descriptors that BridgeDB uses, but they +are public and don't contain any IP addresses or sensitive pieces of +information. +In Section~\ref{sec:missingdata} we look at the problem of missing data +due to either the bridge authority or BridgeDB failing and at the effect +on tracking bridge stability. +We then touch the topic of how bridge descriptors are sanitized and how we +can glue them back together for our analysis in +Section~\ref{sec:sanitizing}. +Next, we examine typical bridge stability values as requirements for +considering a bridge as stable in Section~\ref{sec:requirements}. +In Section~\ref{sec:fractions} we estimate what fraction of bridges would +be considered as stable depending on the chosen stability requirements. +Finally, in Section~\ref{sec:selectedstability} we evaluate how effective +different requirement combinations are for selecting stable bridges. +Result metrics are how soon selected bridges change their address or what +fractional uptime selected bridges have in the future. + +\subsection{Handling missing bridge status data} +\label{sec:missingdata} + +The bridge status data that we use in this analysis and that would also be +used by BridgeDB to track bridge stability is generated by the bridge +authority and copied over to BridgeDB every 30~minutes. +Figure~\ref{fig:runningbridge} shows the number of running bridges +contained in these snapshots from July 2010 to June 2011. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{runningbridge.pdf} +\caption{Median number of running bridges as reported by the bridge +authority} +\label{fig:runningbridge} +\end{figure} + +For most of the time the number of bridges is relatively stable. +But there are at least two irregularities, one in July 2010 and another +one in February 2011, resulting from problems with the bridge authority or +the data transfer to the BridgeDB host. +Figure~\ref{fig:runningbridge-detail} shows these two intervals in more +detail. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{runningbridge-detail.pdf} +\caption{Number of Running bridges during phases when either the bridge +authority or the BridgeDB host were broken} +\label{fig:runningbridge-detail} +\end{figure} + +The missing data from July 14 to 27, 2010 comes from BridgeDB host not +accepting new descriptors from the bridge authority because of an +operating system upgrade of the BridgeDB host. +During this time, the bridge authority continued to work, but BridgeDB was +unable to learn about new bridge descriptors from it. + +During the time from January 31 to February 16, 2011, the \verb+tor+ +process running the bridge authority silently died, but the script to copy +descriptors to BridgeDB kept running. +In this case, BridgeDB received fresh tarballs containing stale +descriptors with a constant number of 687 relays, visualized in light +gray. +These stale descriptors have been excluded from the sanitized descriptors +and the subsequent analysis. +The bridge authority was restarted on February 16, 2011, resulting in the +number of running bridges slowly stabilizing throughout the day. + +Both this analysis and a later implementation in BridgeDB need to take +extended phases of missing or stale data into account. + +\subsection{Detecting address changes in sanitized descriptors} +\label{sec:sanitizing} + +The bridge descriptor archives that we use in this analysis have been +sanitized to remove all addresses and otherwise sensitive +parts~\cite{loesing2011overview}. +Part of this sanitizing process is that bridge IP addresses are replaced +with keyed hashes using a fresh key every month. +More precisely, every bridge IP address is replaced with the private IP +address \verb+10.x.x.x+ with \verb+x.x.x+ being the 3 most significant +bytes of \verb+SHA-256(IP address | bridge identity | secret)+. + +A side-effect of this sanitizing step is that a bridge's sanitized IP +address changes at least once per month, even if the bridge's real IP +address stays the same. +We need to detect these artificial address changes and distinguish them +from real IP address changes. + +In this analysis we use a simple heuristic to distinguish between real IP +address changes and artifacts from the sanitizing process: +Whenever we find that a bridge has changed its IP address from one month +to the next, we look up how long both IP addresses were in use in either +month. +If both addresses were contained in bridge descriptors that were published +at least 36~hours apart, we consider them stable IP addresses and +attribute the apparent IP address change to the sanitizing process. +Otherwise, we assume the bridge has really changed its IP address. +Obviously, this simple heuristic might lead us to false conclusions in +some cases. +But it helps us handle cases when bridges rarely or never change their IP +address which would otherwise suffer from monthly address changes in this +analysis. + +\subsection{Examining typical stability metric values} +\label{sec:requirements} + +The definition of bridge stability on page~\pageref{sec:defining} contains +three different metrics, each of which having a dynamic and a static part. +The dynamic parts compares the value of a bridge's stability metric to the +whole set of running bridges. +Only those bridges are considered as stable that exceed the median value +(or the 12.5th percentile) of all running bridges. +The static requirement parts are fixed values for all stability metrics +that don't rely on the stability of other bridges. + +Figure~\ref{fig:requirements} visualizes the dynamic (solid lines) and +static parts (dashed lines) of all three requirements. +The dynamic WMTBAC requirements are higher than previously expected. +A value of 60 means that, on average, bridges keep their IP address and +port for 60 days. +The dynamic values are cut off at 30 days by the static requirement which +should be a high enough value. +The goal here is to give blocked users a stable enough set of bridges so +that they don't have to wait another 24~hours before receiving new ones. + +We can further see that the dynamic requirements are relatively stable +over time except for the two phases of missing bridge status data. +The first phase in July 2010 mostly affects WT, but neither WMTBAC nor +WFU. +The second phase in February 2011 affects all three metrics. +We can expect the selection of stable bridges during February 2010 to be +more random than at other times. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{requirements.pdf} +\caption{Dynamic requirements for considering a bridge as stable} +\label{fig:requirements} +\end{figure} + +\subsection{Estimating fractions of bridges considered as stable} +\label{sec:fractions} + +Requiring a bridge to meet or exceed either or both WMTBF or WFU metric +results in considering only a subset of all bridges as stable. +The first result of this analysis is to outline what fraction of bridges +would be considered as stable if BridgeDB used either or both +requirements. +In theory, all parameters in the bridge stability definition on +page~\pageref{def:bridgestability} could be adjusted to change the set of +stable bridges or focus more on address changes or on fractional uptime. +We're leaving the fine-tuning for future work when specifying and +implementing the BridgeDB extension. + +Figure~\ref{fig:stablebridge} shows the fraction of stable bridges over +time. +If we only require bridges to meet or exceed the median WMTBAC or the +fixed value of 30 days, roughly 55~% of the bridges are considered as +stable. +If bridges are only required to meet or exceed the WT and WFU values, +about $7/8 \times 1/2 = 43.75~%$ of bridges are considered as stable. +Requiring both WFU and WMTBAC leads to a fraction of roughly 35~% stable +bridges. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{stablebridge.pdf} +\caption{Impact of requiring stable bridges to meet or exceed the median +WFU and/or WMTBAC on the fraction of running bridges considered as stable} +\label{fig:stablebridge} +\end{figure} + +The fraction of 33~% stable bridges seems appropriate if 1 out of +3~bridges in the BridgeDB results is supposed to be a stable bridge. +If more than 1~bridge should be a stable bridge, the requirements need to +be lowered, so that a higher fraction of bridges is considered stable. +Otherwise, the load on stable bridges might become too high. + +\subsection{Evaluating different requirements on stable bridges} +\label{sec:selectedstability} + +The main purpose of this analysis is to compare the quality of certain +requirements and requirement combinations on the stability of selected +bridges. +Similar to the previous section, we only compare whether or not the WMTBAC +or WFU requirement is used, but don't change their parameters. + +The first result is the future uptime that we can expect from a bridge +that we consider stable. +We calculate future uptime similar to past uptime by weighting events in +the near future more than those happening later. +We are particularly interested in the almost worst-case scenario here, +which is why we're looking at the 10th percentile weighted fractional +uptime in the future. +This number means that 10~% of bridges have a weighted fractional uptime +at most this high and 90~% of bridges have a value at least this high. + +Figure~\ref{fig:fwfu-sim} visualizes the four possible combinations of +using or not using the WMTBAC and WFU requirements. +In this plot, the ``WFU & WMTBAC'' and ``WFU'' lines almost entirely +overlap, meaning that the WMTBAC requirement doesn't add anything to +future uptime of selected bridges. +If the WFU requirement is not used, requiring bridges to meet the WMTBAC +requirement increases future uptime from roughly 35~% to maybe 55~%. +That means that there is a slight correlation between the two metrics, +which is plausible. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{fwfu-sim.pdf} +\caption{Impact of requiring stable bridges to meet or exceed the median +WFU and/or WMTBAC on the 10th percentile weighted fractional uptime in the +future} +\label{fig:fwfu-sim} +\end{figure} + +The second result is the time that a selected bridge stays on the same +address and port. +We simply measure the time that the bridge will keep using its current +address in days. +Again, we look at the 10th percentile. +90~% of selected bridges keep their address longer than this time. + +Figure~\ref{fig:tosa-sim} shows for how long bridges keep their address +and port. +Bridges meeting both WFU and WTMBAC requirements keep their address for 2 +to 5~weeks. +This value decreases to 1 to 3~weeks when taking away the WFU requirement, +which is also a result of the two metrics beeing correlated. +The bridges that only meet the WFU requirement and not the WMTBAC +requirement change their address within the first week. +If we don't use any requirement at all, which is what BridgeDB does today, +10~% of all bridges change their address within a single day. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{tosa-sim.pdf} +\caption{Impact of requiring stable bridges to meet or exceed the median +WFU and/or WMTBAC on the 10th percentile time on the same address} +\label{fig:tosa-sim} +\end{figure} + +\section{Concluding the bridge stability analysis} + +In this report we propose to extend BridgeDB to make it give out at least +one stable bridge per user. +Bridge stability can be calculated based on bridge status information over +time, similar to how the directory authorities calculate relay stability. +The bridge stability metric proposed here is based on a bridge's past +uptime and the frequency of changing its address and/or port. +Requiring at least 1 bridge of the 3 to be given out to users greatly +reduces the worst case probability of all bridges being offline or +changing their addresses or ports. +The price for this increase in stability is that stable bridges will be +given out more often than non-stable bridges and will therefore see more +usage. + +We suggest to implement the described bridge stability metric in BridgeDB +and make it configurable to tweak the requirement parameters if needed. +Maybe it turns out to be more useful to lower the requirements for a +bridge to become stable and give out two stable bridges per response. +It's also possible that the requirement for a bridge to keep its address +becomes less important in the future when bridge clients can request a +bridge's current address from the bridge authority. +All these scenarios can be analyzed before deploying them using archived +data as done in this report. + +\bibliography{report} +\bibliographystyle{plain} + +\end{document} + diff --git a/task-4255/stability.R b/task-4255/stability.R new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b2cd487 --- /dev/null +++ b/task-4255/stability.R @@ -0,0 +1,220 @@ +library(ggplot2) +stability <- read.csv("stability.csv", stringsAsFactors = FALSE) + +d <- stability[stability$time > '2010-07' & stability$time < '2011-07', ] +d <- d[, c("time", "running")] +d <- na.omit(d) +d_mean <- aggregate(list(running = d$running), + by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), quantile, probs = 0.5) +d_max <- aggregate(list(running = d$running), + by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), quantile, probs = 0.75) +d_min <- aggregate(list(running = d$running), + by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), quantile, probs = 0.25) +d <- data.frame(x = d_mean$date, y = d_mean$running, ymin = d_min$running, + ymax = d_max$running) +d <- rbind(d, + data.frame(x = as.Date(setdiff(seq(from = min(d$x, na.rm = TRUE), + to = max(d$x, na.rm = TRUE), by="1 day"), d$x), origin = "1970-01-01"), + y = NA, ymin = NA, ymax = NA)) +ggplot(d, aes(x = as.Date(x), y = y, ymin = ymin, ymax = ymax)) + +geom_line() + +scale_x_date(name = "", major = "3 months", minor = "1 month", + format = "%b %Y") + +scale_y_continuous(name = "Running \nbridges ", + limits = c(0, max(d_mean$running, na.rm = TRUE))) + +opts(axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", + hjust = 0.5), + axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", vjust = 0.5, + hjust = 1)) +ggsave(filename = "runningbridge.pdf", width = 7, height = 3, dpi = 100) + +pdf("runningbridge-detail.pdf", width = 7, height = 4) +grid.newpage() +pushViewport(viewport(layout = grid.layout(2, 1))) +d <- stability[stability$time > '2010-07-10' & + stability$time < '2010-07-31', ] +a <- ggplot(d, aes(x = as.POSIXct(time), y = running)) + +geom_point(size = 0.75) + +scale_x_datetime(name = "", major = "1 week", minor = "1 day", + format = "%b %d, %Y") + +scale_y_continuous(name = "Running \nbridges ", + limits = c(0, max(d$running, na.rm = TRUE))) + +opts(axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", + hjust = 0.5), + axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", vjust = 0.5, + hjust = 1), + legend.position = "none") +d <- stability[stability$time > '2011-01-29' & + stability$time < '2011-02-19', ] +e <- read.csv("stale-bridge-tarballs.csv", stringsAsFactors = FALSE, + col.names = c("time")) +d <- rbind( + data.frame(time = d$time, running = d$running, colour = "black"), + data.frame(time = e$time, running = 687, colour = "grey")) +b <- ggplot(d, aes(x = as.POSIXct(time), y = running, colour = colour)) + +geom_point(size = 0.75) + +scale_x_datetime(name = "", major = "1 week", minor = "1 day", + format = "%b %d, %Y") + +scale_y_continuous(name = "Running \nbridges ", + limits = c(0, max(d$running, na.rm = TRUE))) + +scale_colour_manual(values = c("black", "grey60")) + +opts(axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", + hjust = 0.5), + axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", vjust = 0.5, + hjust = 1), + legend.position = "none") +print(a, vp = viewport(layout.pos.row = 1, layout.pos.col = 1)) +print(b, vp = viewport(layout.pos.row = 2, layout.pos.col = 1)) +dev.off() + +d <- stability[stability$time > '2010-07' & stability$time < '2011-07', ] +d <- d[, c("time", "minwmtbaca50wmtbac", "minwta", "minwfua50wfu")] +d <- na.omit(d) +d_mean <- aggregate(d[, 2:length(d)], by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), + quantile, probs = 0.5) +d_max <- aggregate(d[, 2:length(d)], by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), + quantile, probs = 0.75) +d_min <- aggregate(d[, 2:length(d)], by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), + quantile, probs = 0.25) +d <- rbind( + data.frame(x = d_mean$date, + y = d_mean$minwmtbaca50wmtbac / (24 * 60 * 60), + ymin = d_min$minwmtbaca50wmtbac / (24 * 60 * 60), + ymax = d_max$minwmtbaca50wmtbac / (24 * 60 * 60), + var = "Median WMTBAC"), + data.frame(x = d_mean$date, y = d_mean$minwta / (24 * 60 * 60), + ymin = d_min$minwta / (24 * 60 * 60), + ymax = d_max$minwta / (24 * 60 * 60), + var = "12.5th perc. WT"), + data.frame(x = d_mean$date, y = d_mean$minwfua50wfu / 10000, + ymin = d_min$minwfua50wfu / 10000, + ymax = d_max$minwfua50wfu / 10000, + var = "Median WFU")) +missing_dates <- as.Date(setdiff(seq(from = min(d$x, na.rm = TRUE), + to = max(d$x, na.rm = TRUE), by="1 day"), d$x), origin = "1970-01-01") +d <- rbind(d, + data.frame(x = missing_dates, y = NA, ymin = NA, ymax = NA, + var = "Median WMTBAC"), + data.frame(x = missing_dates, y = NA, ymin = NA, ymax = NA, + var = "12.5th perc. WT"), + data.frame(x = missing_dates, y = NA, ymin = NA, ymax = NA, + var = "Median WFU")) +e <- data.frame( + yintercept = c(30, 8, 0.98), + var = c("Median WMTBAC", "12.5th perc. WT", "Median WFU")) +ggplot(d, aes(x = as.Date(x), y = y, ymin = ymin, ymax = ymax)) + +geom_line() +#colour = "grey30") + +#geom_ribbon(alpha = 0.3) + +geom_hline(data = e, aes(yintercept = yintercept), colour = "gray40", + linetype = 2) + +facet_grid(var ~ ., scales = "free_y") + +scale_x_date(name = "", major = "3 months", minor = "1 month", + format = "%b %Y") + +scale_y_continuous(name = "") + +opts(axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", + hjust = 0.5), + axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", vjust = 0.5, + hjust = 1)) +ggsave(filename = "requirements.pdf", width = 7, height = 5, dpi = 100) + +d <- stability[stability$time > '2010-07' & stability$time < '2011-07', ] +d <- d[, c("time", "perc10wfu0wfu0wmtbac", "perc10wfu0wfu50wmtbac", + "perc10wfu50wfu0wmtbac", "perc10wfu50wfu50wmtbac")] +d <- na.omit(d) +d <- aggregate(d[, 2:length(d)], by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), + quantile, probs = 0.5) +d <- rbind(d, + data.frame(date = as.Date(setdiff(seq(from = min(d$date), + to = max(d$date), by="1 day"), d$date), origin = "1970-01-01"), + perc10wfu0wfu0wmtbac = NA, perc10wfu0wfu50wmtbac = NA, + perc10wfu50wfu0wmtbac = NA, perc10wfu50wfu50wmtbac = NA)) +d <- melt(d, id = "date") +ggplot(d, aes(x = date, y = value / 10000, linetype = variable)) + +geom_line() + +scale_y_continuous(name = paste("10th perc. \nWFU in \n", + "the future ", sep = ""), formatter = "percent", limits = c(0, 1)) + +scale_x_date(name = "", major = "3 months", minor = "1 month", + format = "%b %Y") + +scale_linetype_manual(name = paste("Requirements for\nconsidering", + "a\nbridge as stable\n"), breaks = c("perc10wfu50wfu50wmtbac", + "perc10wfu50wfu0wmtbac", "perc10wfu0wfu50wmtbac", + "perc10wfu0wfu0wmtbac"), labels = c("WFU & WMTBAC", "WFU", "WMTBAC", + "None"), values = c(1, 3, 2, 4)) + +opts(plot.title = theme_text(size = 14 * 0.8, face = "bold"), + axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", + hjust = 0.5), + axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", vjust = 0.5, + hjust = 1)) +ggsave(filename = "fwfu-sim.pdf", width = 7, height = 3, dpi = 100) + +d <- stability[stability$time > '2010-07' & stability$time < '2011-07', ] +d <- d[, c("time", "perc10tosa0wfu0wmtbac", "perc10tosa0wfu50wmtbac", + "perc10tosa50wfu0wmtbac", "perc10tosa50wfu50wmtbac")] +d <- na.omit(d) +d <- aggregate(d[, 2:length(d)], by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), + quantile, probs = 0.5) +d <- rbind(d, + data.frame(date = as.Date(setdiff(seq(from = min(d$date), + to = max(d$date), by="1 day"), d$date), origin = "1970-01-01"), + perc10tosa0wfu0wmtbac = NA, perc10tosa0wfu50wmtbac = NA, + perc10tosa50wfu0wmtbac = NA, perc10tosa50wfu50wmtbac = NA)) +d <- melt(d, id = "date") +ggplot(d, aes(x = date, y = value / 86400, linetype = variable)) + +geom_line() + +scale_y_continuous(name = paste("10th perc. \ntime on \nthe same \n", + "address \nin days ", sep = ""), + breaks = seq(0, max(d$value / 86400, na.rm = TRUE), 7), + minor = seq(0, max(d$value / 86400, na.rm = TRUE), 1), + limits = c(0, max(d$value / 86400, na.rm = TRUE))) + +scale_x_date(name = "", major = "3 months", minor = "1 month", + format = "%b %Y") + +scale_linetype_manual(name = paste("Requirements for\nconsidering", + "a\nbridge as stable\n"), breaks = c("perc10tosa50wfu50wmtbac", + "perc10tosa0wfu50wmtbac", "perc10tosa50wfu0wmtbac", + "perc10tosa0wfu0wmtbac"), labels = c("WFU & WMTBAC", "WMTBAC", "WFU", + "None"), values = c(1, 3, 2, 4)) + +opts(plot.title = theme_text(size = 14 * 0.8, face = "bold"), + axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", + hjust = 0.5), + axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", vjust = 0.5, + hjust = 1)) +ggsave(filename = "tosa-sim.pdf", width = 7, height = 3, dpi = 100) + +d <- stability[stability$time > '2010-07' & stability$time < '2011-07', ] +d <- d[, c("time", "stablebridge0wfu50wmtbac", "stablebridge50wfu0wmtbac", + "stablebridge50wfu50wmtbac", "running")] +d <- na.omit(d) +#d <- aggregate(d[, 2:length(d)], by = list(date = as.Date(d$time)), +# quantile, probs = 0.5) +d <- rbind( + data.frame(time = d$time, y = d$stablebridge0wfu50wmtbac / d$running, + variable = "WMTBAC"), + data.frame(time = d$time, y = d$stablebridge50wfu0wmtbac / d$running, + variable = "WFU"), + data.frame(time = d$time, y = d$stablebridge50wfu50wmtbac / d$running, + variable = "WFU & WMTBAC")) +d <- aggregate(list(y = d$y), by = list(x = as.Date(d$time), + variable = d$variable), quantile, probs = 0.5) +missing_dates <- as.Date(setdiff(seq(from = min(d$x, na.rm = TRUE), + to = max(d$x, na.rm = TRUE), by="1 day"), d$x), origin = "1970-01-01") +d <- rbind(d, + data.frame(x = missing_dates, y = NA, + variable = "WMTBAC"), + data.frame(x = missing_dates, y = NA, + variable = "WFU"), + data.frame(x = missing_dates, y = NA, + variable = "WFU & WMTBAC")) +ggplot(d, aes(x = x, y = y, linetype = variable)) + +geom_line() + +scale_y_continuous(name = "Fraction of \nRunning \nbridges ", + formatter = "percent", limits = c(0, max(d$y, na.rm = TRUE))) + +scale_x_date(name = "", major = "3 months", minor = "1 month", + format = "%b %Y") + +scale_linetype_manual(name = paste("\nRequirements for\nconsidering", + "a\nbridge as stable\n"), values = c(3, 2, 4)) + +opts(axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", + hjust = 0.5), + axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 12 * 0.8, face = "bold", vjust = 0.5, + hjust = 1)) +ggsave(filename = "stablebridge.pdf", width = 7, height = 3, dpi = 100) + diff --git a/task-4255/stale-bridge-tarballs.csv b/task-4255/stale-bridge-tarballs.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ff430a4 --- /dev/null +++ b/task-4255/stale-bridge-tarballs.csv @@ -0,0 +1,760 @@ +2011-01-31 06:07:03 +2011-01-31 06:37:03 +2011-01-31 07:07:03 +2011-01-31 07:37:02 +2011-01-31 08:07:02 +2011-01-31 08:37:03 +2011-01-31 09:07:03 +2011-01-31 09:37:04 +2011-01-31 10:07:03 +2011-01-31 10:37:03 +2011-01-31 11:07:03 +2011-01-31 11:37:03 +2011-01-31 12:07:02 +2011-01-31 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