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[tech-reports/master] Add raw countingusers report from 2010.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit 0fb2583669f06d74540e183baaf1cf0333aff0ec Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 15:27:41 2012 +0200 Add raw countingusers report from 2010. --- 2010/countingusers/.gitignore | 3 + 2010/countingusers/bridge-users.pdf | 981 +++++++++++++ 2010/countingusers/countingusers.tex | 1044 +++++++++++++ 2010/countingusers/dirbytes-mirrors.pdf | 1114 ++++++++++++++ 2010/countingusers/entrystats.pdf | 1304 +++++++++++++++++ 2010/countingusers/estimated-users.pdf | 1467 +++++++++++++++++++ 2010/countingusers/newusers.pdf | 1444 ++++++++++++++++++ 2010/countingusers/trusted-details.pdf | 2413 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 2010/countingusers/trusted.pdf | 912 ++++++++++++ 9 files changed, 10682 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-) diff --git a/2010/countingusers/.gitignore b/2010/countingusers/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6a1f279 --- /dev/null +++ b/2010/countingusers/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +countingusers.pdf +countingusers-2010-11-30.pdf + diff 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orders of magnitude of Tor usage that we assume +at the time of writing this report. +Estimating the number of users in an anonymity network is a hard +problem. +On the one hand, it's important to learn something about the users of a +network to improve its service. +On the other hand, the users of an anonymity network have a high +demand for privacy, which prohibits collecting sensitive information that +is necessary to obtain exact usage statistics. +In this report we describe our approaches to collect aggregated usage +data and derive user number estimates from them. +% cite WESCR 2010 paper? + +We start with our two current approaches to estimate the number of +non-censored daily users. +These approaches are based on counting the number of directory +requests that clients make to update their network information. +Clients need to download initial network information from a small fixed +set of relays, the directory authorities, and refresh their network +information in regular intervals from a larger changing set of relays, the +directory mirrors. +We describe our current approach to estimate the number of new and +returning users from requests seen at directory authorities in +Section~\ref{sec:auths} and our estimate of recurring users based on +requests to directory mirrors in Section~\ref{sec:current}. +%from one of a few hundred relays that are configured as directory mirrors. +%We count these requests on a fast directory mirror, which also reports +%what share of the total requests in the network it thinks it has answered. +%We project the total number of requests in the network using the +%self-reported share and divide by the number of requests that each client +%makes to estimate the total number of users. + +In Section~\ref{sec:combine}, we extend our current approach to count +recurring users by combining reported directory requests from multiple +directory mirrors. +%We estimate the fraction of observed requests from the number of bytes +%that directory mirrors spend on answering directory requests instead of +%relying on self-reported expected shares. +The result is a less volatile user number estimate with fewer outliers and +missing data points. + +The previous approaches have in common that they estimate user numbers +based on the number of directory requests. +In Section~\ref{sec:entry} we discuss an estimation based on the number of +unique IP addresses seen on a fast directory mirror. +Clients open numerous connections to directory mirrors to download +updated network status information such as new consensuses and +the relay descriptors therein. +%There are roughly 2000 relays in the Tor network at the time of writing. +%Clients need to download the descriptors of all relays, so that they can, +%in theory, use any relay for building a circuit. +A quick analysis of the logs of a bootstrapping Tor client reveals that a +relay that is chosen for 5~\% of all directory requests sees at least +two-thirds of all client IP addresses. +% Explain what kind of analysis? +% +%As a result, Tor is going to introduce the concept of \emph{directory +%guards} which makes client select a fixed set of directory mirrors for all +%requests. +%But until directory guards are implemented, +We can use the number of +unique IP addresses on a fast directory mirror to estimate the number of +daily users. +The presented approach is based on data coming from a single directory +mirror. +Combining unique IP addresses from multiple directory mirrors needs to be +done very carefully and is left for future work. + +We sketch a design to introduce a new counting cell type in +Section~\ref{sec:countingcell}. +Clients would send counting cells once a day to counting authorities or +entry guards. +We discuss the attack potential and possible defenses against adversarial actions. +% TODO is there a better word than 'trick'? yes. + +In Section~\ref{sec:bridges} we describe our current approach to count +censored users. +These users cannot connect to the publicly known relays to download +directory information or establish circuits. +Therefore, censored users have to learn about one or more bridge relays +which behave in a similar manner to normal relays except that they are not listed in +the public directory. +%Clients fetch all their directory information and establish all their +%circuits with a bridge as their first entry point into the Tor network. +Bridges report the number of unique IP addresses they see every day. +Our current approach to count censored users is to simply sum up these +unique IP addresses per day. +We discuss shortcomings and propose improvements to derive a better +estimate for censored Tor users. + +We conclude with a comparison of the described approaches, identify the +most promising approaches, recommend possible improvements, and outline +future work in Section~\ref{sec:conclusion}. + +\section{Counting requests on directory authorities} +\label{sec:auths} + +As of mid 2010, we use two approaches to estimate the number of +non-censored Tor users: +The first approach captures the number of new or returning users, the +second approach counts the recurring users. +This distinction comes from the design of our estimates that are both +based on Tor's directory protocol. + +Whenever a client bootstraps or when its network information becomes +stale, the client requests a fresh network status, which is a list of all +currently running relays, from the directories. +New clients which do not have any directory information pick one of +a fixed set of hard-coded directory authorities for their request. +There are currently eight such directory authorities, but the set can be +changed whenever a new version of the Tor software is released. +Returning clients with outdated network information take the same +approach. +Recurring clients with still recent network information choose a directory +mirror for their update request. +The approach for counting new and returning users is described in this +section, the approach for counting recurring users in the next section. + +Seven out of eight directory authorities report the number of directory +requests they're answering every day. +When we started estimating new and returning users, only one or two +directory authorities were reporting these data. +That is why we weight the requests seen by a single directory authority +with the expected fraction of requests that the directory authority should +see. +In 2009, clients knew about 7 directory authorities of which on average 6 +were running at the same time. +Hence, we made the assumption that the directory authorities reporting +request numbers were picked for every sixth request by new and returning +clients. +Even though an eighth directory authority has been added in 2010, only +clients running a recent development version of Tor use this new directory +authority. +We therefore stick with our original assumption that a directory authority +sees 1 out of 6 requests. +We multiply the reported request number by 6 to obtain an estimate of +daily new or returning users. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{newusers.pdf} +\caption{Estimated number of new and returning users} +\label{fig:newusers} +\end{figure} + +Figure~\ref{fig:newusers} shows the estimated number of new or returning +users based on the request numbers reported by directory authority +\texttt{gabelmoo} (black) and the average reported request numbers by all +directory authorities (gray). +The estimated user number based on the average of all directory +authorities is 20 to 25 thousand users higher than the numbers reported +by \texttt{gabelmoo}, but in general, both estimates are of the same order +of magnitude. +The peak in March 2010 results from a single directory authority reporting +ten times as many requests as the other directory authorities. +This is probably due to a bug in the Tor code and not an actual increase in +users. +The increase in April 2010 can also be explained by bugs in the Tor code +which led to overloading the network. +We therefore expect the average number of new or returning users to be +around 100 thousand. + +However, it's difficult to interpret this estimated user number in a +meaningful way. +We don't know how many hours per day a typical user is connected to the +network and after how many hours or days they typically return. +We are more interested in the total number of users connecting to the +network at least once a day. +This question can better be answered by the estimates described below +which attempt to count the number of recurring users. + +\section{Counting requests on directory mirrors} +\label{sec:current} + +Our current approach for estimating (recurring) daily users is based on +the fact that every client needs to refresh its network information every +few hours in order to make indistinguishable path selection decisions. +Clients weight their choice of a directory mirror by the relays' bandwidth +capacities in order to load-balance requests. +The idea of this approach is to infer the number of users from the number +of directory requests on a fast directory mirror and weight them with the +request share the reporting directory mirrors expects to see. + +For our user number estimation, we count the number of network status +requests on a fast directory mirror. +We first estimate how many network status requests there are in the +network by dividing the local request number by the share of requests that +this particular directory mirror thinks it should see. +As an approximation of the request share, the directory mirror reports +the probability of picking itself if it were a client. +In the second step we estimate the number of users by dividing the global +network status request numbers by 10 on the assumption that every client +makes on average 10 requests per day. +10 is probably a too high number, but one that prevents us from +over-counting our users. +% We could derive some statistics from the Torperfs running on moria to +% support our assumption that 10 is too high. + +\begin{equation} +U_t = \frac{r_t}{s_t \times 10} +\end{equation} + +\begin{center} +\begin{tabular}{p{0.75cm}p{9cm}} +$U_t$ & User number estimate based on directory requests to directory +mirror \texttt{trusted}\\ +$r_t$ & Directory requests to directory mirror \texttt{trusted}\\ +$s_t$ & Share of directory requests expected at directory mirror +\texttt{trusted}\\ +\end{tabular} +\end{center} + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{trusted.pdf} +\caption{User number estimate based on directory requests to directory +mirror \texttt{trusted}} +\label{fig:trusted} +\end{figure} + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{trusted-details.pdf} +\caption{Directory requests, shares, and user number estimate, based on +directory requests to directory mirror \texttt{trusted}} +\label{fig:trusted-details} +\end{figure} + +Figure~\ref{fig:trusted} shows the daily user number estimate based on +directory requests to the fast directory mirror \texttt{trusted}. +Evidently, this estimate is flawed by having outliers and lots of missing +values. +Some of these problems can be explained when looking at the input data. +Figure~\ref{fig:trusted-details} shows the directory requests $r_t$ and +expected share of requests $s_t$ as well as the estimated user number +$U_t$. +From these two graphs we can make a few observations: + +\begin{itemize} +\item The peaks in May 2010 and later with 1.2 million and 800 +thousand daily users (marked with gray circles) are probably not accurate user +numbers, but more likely measurement errors. +These data points result from directory request shares being slightly +higher than 1~\%. +(Data points with directory request shares of 1~\% or less are excluded +anyway; if these data points were included, there would have been even +more outliers with millions of users which are unlikely real.) +Raising the bar to 1.5~\% would eliminate these outliers, but would also +remove a lot of, apparently correct, data points. +\item In September 2009 (first dashed line), user numbers increased from +roughly 150 to 250 thousand, and volatility of user numbers increased by +factor 2 to 3. +While the request numbers remain more or less stable during this time, +the expected share of requests seen by \texttt{trusted} drops from 3.5~\% +to 2~\%. +The reason for this decrease is that more recent clients started weighting +relays by active bandwidth scanner results instead of the relays' +self-reported bandwidth claims. +However, \texttt{trusted} assumes that all clients use the bandwidth +scanner results for path selection which is not the case. +\item Beginning in June 2010 (second dashed line), shares drop to zero for +about a month, stabilize at around 1.5~\% for two months and then +oscillate between 0 and 9~\%. +The reason for this behavior is the introduction of consensus weights that further help +clients to make good path selection decisions. +Again, \texttt{trusted} bases its expected request share on the +assumption that all clients use consensus weights for their path selection +decisions which is wrong. +\end{itemize} + +In summary, the major problem with the described approach is the +approximation of the request share that a directory mirror expects to see. +The various deployed Tor versions all use different weights for picking a +directory mirror: +Clients running Tor version 0.2.0.x use the relays' self-advertised +bandwidths to decide which directory mirror to pick. +Clients on version 0.2.1.x use actively measured bandwidths from four +bandwidth scanners running on the authoritative directory servers for +their choice. +Clients running version 0.2.2.x base their decision on the measured +bandwidths, but weighted by network-wide factors depending on the assigned +relay flags of a directory mirror. +The shares reported by directory mirror \texttt{trusted} reflect a +situation in which all clients run the same Tor version as +\texttt{trusted} at the given time, which is not the case. +While we could calculate shares independent of \texttt{trusted}, we have +no reliable data about the fractions of running client versions and could +therefore not weight the calculated version-specific request shares. +In the next section we discuss an approach to combine the findings of +multiple directory mirrors and replace the expected request share by a +more reliable metric. + +% It might also be problematic that relays update their advertised +% bandwidth only every 18 hours when publishing a new descriptor. +% Likewise, bandwidth scanners scan a relay only every so often. There +% may be significant changes from one bandwidth value to the next, but +% clients take a few hours to notice that change. More research would be +% necessary, but we already know the approach is broken, so might as well +% not care. + +The second problem with the described approach is that the estimated user +number is less precise the fewer requests a directory mirror sees. +When we started estimating user numbers based on directory mirror +\texttt{trusted}, it reported shares of roughly 3.5~\% of all requests in +the network. +With the introduction of the various performance improvements and with the +recent increase in fast directory mirrors, this share has decreased to +1.5~\%. +As we can see, estimations based on a fraction of observations this small +are not very reliable. + +The third problem is that we can only guess that a client makes 10 network +status requests per day. +While this assumption may work for clients which are connected to the Tor +network all day, other clients may well send fewer requests than 10. +We do not have any data about the average hours of Tor usage per day to +come up with a better number than 10 requests. +If, for example, the real number of requests per client was 5, our +estimate would be off by a factor 2. +The good news is that, while being off by an unknown factor, we're off by +that factor all the time, so that comparisons over time are still +accurate. + +% Idea for implementing directory guards: With all relays caching +% directory information, instead of building circuits to directories +% *using* directory guards, clients could simply ask their directory +% guards for whatever directory information they want to know. + +\section{Combining requests to directory mirrors} +\label{sec:combine} + +%\paragraph{Summing up requests and shares} +% +%The first new approach combines directory requests simply by summing up +%requests and shares of all directory mirrors reporting these numbers. +%While \texttt{trusted} was the only fast directory mirror reporting +%directory requests for about a year, a couple of even faster relays +%started reporting these numbers in August 2010. +% +%\begin{equation} +%U_s = \frac{r}{s \times 10} +%\end{equation} +% +%\begin{center} +%\begin{tabular}{p{1cm}p{9cm}} +%$U_s$ & User estimate based on sums of all directory requests and shares\\ +%$r$ & Directory requests to all reporting directory mirrors\\ +%$s$ & Share of directory requests expected at all reporting directory +%mirrors\\ +%\end{tabular} +%\end{center} +% +%\begin{figure}[t] +%\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{share.png} +%\caption{Directory requests, shares and user number estimate based on +%directory requests by all reporting directory mirrors (black), compared +%to \texttt{trusted} only (gray)} +%\label{fig:share} +%\end{figure} +% +%Figure~\ref{fig:share} shows the total requests, shares, and estimated +%users based on all reporting directory mirrors. +%The total request numbers and reported shares exceed those of +%\texttt{trusted} in May 2010 and from August 2010 on. +%The resulting user number estimate is similar to the current approach +%until May 2010, because \texttt{trusted} was reporting most of the +%requests during that time anyway. +%Beginning in May 2010, the combined numbers have by far fewer missing +%data points, because it's easier to reach shares of 1~\% or higher with +%multiple data source. +%At the same time, the estimated user numbers are lower when combining all +%available data sources. +% +%The results of this new approach are still not satisfactory. +%In particular the estimates of about 1 million users in May 2010 and later +%are hardly correct. +%In addition to that, it's unlikely that the reporting directory mirrors +%saw up to 80~\% of all requests in September and October 2010. +%In the two approaches below we drop the self-reported expected directory +%request shares completely and use different metrics to answer what +%fraction of directory requests have been reported on a given day. +% +%\paragraph{Estimating total requests using bandwidth histories} +% +%The second new approach to combine directory requests makes use of +%bandwidth histories to estimate what fraction of directory requests has +%been reported. +%Rather than resembling clients' decisions for selecting relays (which can +%be difficult with the different deployed path selection strategies), we +%use the bandwidth histories reported by relays to estimate what fraction +%of directory requests they have seen. +%If all directory mirrors reporting directory requests together have +%pushed $b_{pr}$ bytes and all directory mirrors, whether or not they +%report directory requests, have pushed $b_p$ bytes, we expect that in the +%whole network, there have been $\frac{b_p}{b_{pr}}$ as many directory +%requests as we have seen. +%The underlying assumption is that the directory mirrors reporting +%directory requests spend the same fraction of bytes on answering directory +%requests as all directory mirrors. +% +%\begin{equation} +%U_p = r \times \frac{b_p}{b_{pr} \times 10} +%\end{equation} +% +%\begin{center} +%\begin{tabular}{p{1cm}p{9cm}} +%$U_p$ & User estimate based on directory requests to all reporting +%directory mirrors, weighted by bandwidth histories\\ +%$r$ & Directory requests answered by all reporting directory mirrors\\ +%$b_p$ & Written and read bytes by all directory mirrors\\ +%$b_{pr}$ & Written and read bytes by directory mirrors that report +%directory requests\\ +%\end{tabular} +%\end{center} +% +%\begin{figure}[t] +%\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{bwhist.png} +%\caption{Directory requests, shares and user number estimate based on +%directory requests weighted by bandwidth histories} +%\label{fig:bwhist} +%\end{figure} +% +%Figure~\ref{fig:bwhist} shows the estimated users based on directory +%requests weighted by written and read bytes of reporting directory mirrors +%compared to all directory mirrors. +%The user number estimate is less volatile than the previous two estimates +%and has no outliers in the millions. +%There are also only very few missing data points, because the share is +%above 1~\% most of the time. +% +%However, the range of 50 to 500 thousand daily users is still higher than +%expected. +%It might be that the assumption that directory mirrors reporting directory +%requests spend the same fraction of bytes on answering directory requests +%as all directory mirrors is inaccurate. +%We hope that this assumption becomes less important with an even higher +%number of directory mirrors reporting directory requests in the future. + +The major shortcomings of the approach described in the previous section +are very low request shares of 1.5~\% or less and the difficulty to +accurately estimate shares of directory requests seen at directory mirrors. +In this section we discuss a new approach to overcome these two problems. +The presented approach combines the reported directory request numbers +from multiple directory mirrors and uses the relays' bandwidth histories +to determine what fraction of the total requests in the network have been +reported. + +This new approach utilizes a recently introduced metric: bytes spent on +answering directory requests. +Directory mirrors running Tor version 0.2.2.15-alpha or higher report +how many bytes they spent on answering directory requests in addition to +the number of bytes they spent on all traffic. +By looking at the relay descriptor archives, we can estimate the number of +directory bytes written on a give day by both the relays reporting directory requests and all +directory mirrors (including those that did not report directory requests). + +As a first step we estimate the number of directory bytes written by +directory mirrors. +Only a fraction of the directory mirrors are running Tor version +0.2.2.15-alpha or higher, which is why we have to extrapolate the number +of directory bytes from the reported number. +For the first estimation we assume that every directory mirror spends the +same fraction of its total bytes on answering directory requests. +Hence, the reported number of directory bytes constitute a fraction of +total directory bytes in the network that is equal to the number of bytes +written by directory mirrors reporting directory bytes divided by the +number of bytes written by all directory mirrors. +% +%\begin{equation} +%d_p = \frac{d \times b_p}{b_d} +%\end{equation} +% +%\begin{center} +%\begin{tabular}{p{1cm}p{9cm}} +%$d_p$ & Estimated directory bytes\\ +%$d$ & Reported directory bytes\\ +%$b_p$ & Reported written bytes by all directory mirrors\\ +%$b_d$ & Reported written bytes by directory mirrors reporting directory +%bytes\\ +%\end{tabular} +%\end{center} + +For the second estimation we assume that the difference between total +written and total read bytes on directory mirrors is to a large extent the +result of answering small directory requests with large directory objects. +We observed that relays that don't mirror the directory write more bytes +than they read, too, but the difference between written and read bytes is +much smaller than on directory mirrors. +We weight the bytes written by directory mirrors with the quotient of +read and written bytes on relays that don't mirror the directory in order +to account for non-directory related factors. +We then subtract the number of bytes read by directory mirrors and obtain +an estimate of directory bytes written by directory mirrors. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{dirbytes-mirrors.pdf} +\caption{Estimated directory bytes written by directory mirrors based on +the extrapolation of reported directory bytes (gray) and the difference +between written and read bytes (black)} +\label{fig:dirbytes-mirrors} +\end{figure} + +Figure~\ref{fig:dirbytes-mirrors} shows the two directory bytes +estimations. +Until mid-September 2010, the extrapolation of reported directory bytes +(gray) is slightly higher than the difference between written and read +bytes (black), but both estimates are of the same order of magnitude. +The difference of up to 4~MiB/s is not much when comparing it to the total +number of bytes written by directory mirrors, which is 300~MiB/s at the +time of writing. +With only three months of data, it is unclear which of the two estimates +is more accurate. +For the following analysis we use the difference between written and read +bytes as estimate for directory bytes, because these numbers are available +for the past 1.5 years. +Once we have a larger fraction of directory mirrors reporting directory +bytes we are going to revisit and possibly adjust this estimate. + +Now that we have an estimate of directory bytes written by all directory +mirrors and by the directory mirrors reporting directory requests, we can +extrapolate the number of observed directory requests to learn the total +number of directory requests in the network. +We assume that directory mirrors reporting directory requests spend the +same fraction of directory bytes on answering directory requests as all +directory mirrors. + +\begin{equation} +U_d = \frac{r \times (b^w_p \times \frac{b^r_n}{b^w_n} - b^r_p)}{(b^w_{pr} \times \frac{b^r_n}{b^w_n} - b^r_{pr}) \times 10} +\end{equation} + +\begin{center} +\begin{tabular}{p{0.75cm}p{9cm}} +$U_d$ & User number estimate based on multiple directory mirrors reporting +directory requests\\ +$r$ & Reported directory requests\\ +$b^w_p$ & Total bytes written by all directory mirrors\\ +$b^r_p$ & Total bytes read by all directory mirrors\\ +$b^w_n$ & Total bytes written by all relays that don't mirror the +directory\\ +$b^r_n$ & Total bytes read by all relays that don't mirror the directory\\ +$b^w_{pr}$ & Total bytes written by all directory mirrors reporting +directory requests\\ +$b^r_{pr}$ & Total bytes read by all directory mirrors reporting directory +requests\\ +\end{tabular} +\end{center} + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{estimated-users.pdf} +\caption{User number estimate based on all reported directory requests +weighted by estimated written directory bytes (black) compared to the +current approach based on directory requests to directory mirror +\texttt{trusted} (gray)} +\label{fig:estimated-users} +\end{figure} + +Figure~\ref{fig:estimated-users} shows the new user number estimate +(black) and compares it to the current approach (gray). +The new user number estimate is less volatile and has no outliers in the +millions. +There are also no missing data points anymore, because the combined +directory requests originate from a fraction of directory mirrors that is +greater than 1~\% in the observed time interval. + +%We recommend to increase the fraction of directory mirrors reporting +%directory requests to have a more solid data basis. +%Possible next steps are to ask relay operators running fast and stable +%relays to collect and report these aggregate statistics. +%Further, the configuration option for reporting directory requests could +%be set by default for all relays. +%Once we have more data, we are going to revisit this approach and maybe +%fine-tune it. + +%\paragraph{Projecting requests using read/written directory bytes} +% +%We need to learn two data points to calculate what fraction of directory +%bytes the directory mirrors reporting directory requests have pushed. +%First, we need to calculate the number of directory bytes that all +%directory mirrors in the network pushed. +% +%\begin{verbatim} +%We need to find out what fraction of dirreqs are reported to us. +%We assume that the number of dirreqs that a relay answers scales +%proportionally to the number of dirbytes that the relay pushes, i.e., a +%relay that pushes 10 % of all dirbytes also answers 10 % of all dirreqs. +%We need to learn two things in order to answer this question: +%First, how many dirbytes did all relays in the network push? +%Second, how many dirbytes did the relays that report dirreqs push? +% +%We'll start by answering the first subproblem. +%We'd like to learn how many dirbytes were read/written in the network, +%but not all relays report dirbytes. +%Therefore, we weight the reported dirbytes with the fraction of total +%(non-dir) bytes that the relays reporting dirbytes pushed as compared to +%all pushed bytes. +%In order to answer the first question, we count: +% +%b: total reported bytes +%d: total reported dirbytes +%b_d: bytes reported by relays reporting dirbytes +% +%We then can estimate the total number of dirbytes. +% +%D = d * b / b_d +%D: total estimated dirbytes +% +%<dirbytes-total.png> +% +%We need to make sure that enough relays report dirbytes, or our +%extrapolation is based on too few data points. +%The fraction of bytes reported by relays that report dirbytes shouldn't +% +%drop below, say, 15 %. +%The graph only shows data for the fraction being 15 % or higher. +% +%f_bd = b_d / b +%f_bd: fraction of bytes reported by relays that report dirbytes +% +%The second sub problem to solve is to find out how many dirbytes have been +%pushed by the relays that report dirreqs. +%We again use the non-dir bytes that are reported by all relays for the +%extrapolation. +%We count: +% +%d_r: dirbytes reported by relays reporting dirreqs +%b_r: bytes reported by relays reporting dirreqs +%b_dr: bytes reported by relays reporting dirbytes and dirreqs +% +%We can then estimate the number of dirbytes being pushed by all relays +%reporting dirreqs. +% +%D_r = d_r * b_r / b_dr +%D_r: total estimated dirbytes reported by relays reporting dirreqs +% +%<dirbytes-part.png> +% +%Finally, we can estimate the total number of dirreqs by using the two +%estimates calculated above. +% +%R = r * D / D_r = r * (d * b / b_d) / (d_r * b_r / b_dr) +%R: total estimated dirreqs, different approaches +% +%Finally assume that each user makes 10 requests per day: +%U = R / 10 +%U: total estimate daily users +% +%\end{verbatim} + +\section{Counting IP addresses at directory mirrors} +\label{sec:entry} + +An alternative approach to count daily users is to count unique IP +addresses on a relay that sees most of the clients at least once a day. +A fast directory mirror is such a relay. +Clients open numerous connections to directory mirrors, in addition to +downloading network statuses, to download relay descriptors. +The Tor network consists of roughly 2000 relays at the time of writing, +and clients attempt to download all relay descriptors, so that they can +build circuits with any of these relays. +Clients split downloads among directory mirrors, because requests cannot +contain more than 96 relay descriptor identifiers. + +A quick analysis shows that an always running Tor client sends out on +average 80 requests for relay descriptors per day. +The probability of a fast directory mirror, say, one that is chosen for +5~\% of all directory requests, to be contacted at least once a day is +$1-0.95^{80} = 98.3\%$. +Even a client that only connects to the network for a few minutes per day +downloads all current descriptors which takes at least +$\lceil2000 / 96\rceil = 21$ requests. +The probability of such a client contacting a directory mirror that sees +5~\% of all requests is $1-0.95^{21} = 65.9\%$. + +In the near future, Tor is going to introduce \emph{directory guards}. +The idea is that clients pick a small number of relays as their directory +guards and send all directory requests to them. +This is meant to prevent a single malicious directory mirror from learning +about many client IP addresses. +But until directory guards are implemented, we can use the number of +unique IP addresses observed on a fast directory mirror to estimate the +number of daily users. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{entrystats.pdf} +\caption{User number estimates based on unique IP addresses reported by +the fast directory mirror \texttt{trusted} (black) and two other fast +directory mirrors} +\label{fig:entrystats} +\end{figure} + +Figure~\ref{fig:entrystats} shows the user number estimates +based on unique IP addresses seen on three fast directory mirrors. +The fast directory mirror {\tt trusted} reports the highest number of +unique IP addresses of all three directory mirrors. +There are two time intervals when two or all three directory mirrors +report similar numbers: from December 2009 to January 2010 and from late +April to early May 2010. +The fact that the directory mirrors report similar numbers during those +times is an indication that they all saw the majority of clients in the +network. +We therefore believe that the user number estimates of 150 to 250 thousand +daily users are accurate and pose a realistic upper bound of the real +number of daily Tor users. +These estimates are also of the same order of magnitude as the estimates +described in the previous section. + +The major shortcoming of the described approach is that there is no simple +way to combine reported unique IP addresses of two or more directory +mirrors. +Directory mirrors keep the observed client IP addresses in memory for at +most 24 hours, report the absolute number of distinct addresses, and +discard the IP addresses. +It may be possible to exchange data structures containing IP addresses +between directory mirrors in a privacy-preserving way and combine them to +learn about the union size of unique IP address sets. +Possible approaches might be based on private set intersection techniques +or probabilistic data structures like Bloom filters. +We leave these approaches as future work. + +\section{Introducing a counting cell} +\label{sec:countingcell} + +Another approach is to introduce a new cell type to the Tor protocol; the counting cell. +This approach doesn't estimate user numbers by counting directory +requests or unique IP addresses. +Under this approach, clients would send counting cells once per day to special relays, called +counting authorities. + +\subsection{Counting cell overview} +The most important statistic for Tor's user count is the number of daily +users. +Our other metrics are passive observations by certain routers, +whereas the counting cell would be an active approach. +Tor clients would send a notification of their presence once daily, so that +the presence notifications can be added together to get the user count. +Tor has a notion of different cell types to encapsulate different information +when sending it along a circuit. +A new type of cell can easily be created to transport presence information. +This presence information is then reported to the metrics engine and +aggregated to find the actual user count for one day. + +Two different approaches are examined here: +The first approach uses Tor's directory authorities as counting authorities. +Clients report their presence via an anonymized tunnel. +Picking guard nodes as counting authorities is the other possibility. +Clients would not need to create a special circuit and can instead just use +one of their regular circuits to send the counting cell to the first hop directly. + +Some general considerations are valid for both types: +Counting authorities have to be very stable and well-connected so that +clients can report their presence reliably. +The counting authorities also need to export the data they received in +some document that can be collected by the metrics engine to analyze and +present the statistics. +Tor already has an extra-info descriptor mechanism in place that can be +used. + +\subsection{Using directory authorities as counting authorities} +Directory authorities have the same requirements as outlined above: +They need to be very stable, because everyone relies on them to +generate and sign the consensus. +They also already export their votes which get collected by the metrics +engine. + +Two options are available for how clients report their presence to these +counting authorities; they can either send a counting cell to each of +them or pick one at random. +Both approaches have advantages and drawbacks, outlined below: + +Sending the cell to all authorities might raise a scalability +problem as a single counting authority might not be able to keep +up with the load if all clients make one connection per day to report +their presence. +In a network with 250,000 users, an average of almost 3 reports per +second is to be expected. +In reality, since Tor's user base isn't distributed among timezones +equally, much higher report rates per second are to be anticipated. +The load this induces on each directory authorities should be carefully +examined, because it will increase proportional to an increase in the +user base. + +The advantage of reporting presence to all counting authorities is that +if a single report fails, the others can still count the user. +If any of the counting authorities reports a much lower value than +the others for a specific day, it can be taken out of the statistics +aggregating process for that day or until the connectivity problems +are resolved. + +Sending a counting cell to just one counting authority increases the +scalability of the system, as new counting authorities +could easily be added once the others are becoming overloaded. +Another advantage is that the user doesn't have to create one circuit +per counting authority, but rather just one per day. +This means that a user who doesn't use Tor for very long on a certain +day can still be counted correctly, even if she wouldn't have had the +time to report her presence to all authorities. + + +Data loss or other malfunctions on one of the counting authorities +poses a major problem in this scheme. +Such data loss cannot be corrected, and statistics for the time period +will be inaccurate. + +\paragraph{Abuse potential and inaccuracies} + +In a system where cells are reported to all counting authorities, +there is no strong protection against a counting authority that +increases the count of users by reporting a higher number of users by +just sending counting cells to the other authorities. +It would, however, prevent an authority from under-reporting the number +of users, because the others will report a higher user count so that +the data from the dishonest authority can be discarded by the statistics +aggregator. + +When users report their presence to only one counting authority, this +counting authority can under-report the number of users, +because under-reporting cannot be distinguished from being unavailable +for a part of the day. +It is also possible to increase the count of users even without sending +counting cells to the other counting authorities. +Detection of such behavior is very difficult, as lower numbers can +always be explained to be due to network problems at the counting +authority; and only very unusually high numbers would indicate increasing +the number of users maliciously. + +It is trivial to arbitrarily increase the count of users by sending on +average more than one counting cell per 24 hour window. +Because counting cells are anonymized, there are no special resources +necessary to execute the attack, other than the ability to make circuits +to the counting authorities. +This attack needs to be continued for as long as the user count is to be +influenced. +When the attack is stopped, the result will be an apparent loss of Tor +users. + +When the scheme is newly deployed or when alternative +implementations of Tor clients that don't include counting cells are +introduced, the number of Tor users will be undercounted. +Both cases have to be taken into consideration when evaluating the +collected data. + +\paragraph{Possibility for additional statistics} +Because clients report their presence anonymously under the counting cell scheme, additional statistics +can be gathered using this approach. + +Example statistics are client version and the uptime since the last +cell was sent. +% +While adding additional statistics, care must be taken that the anonymity +set is still sufficiently large. +For the client version, we could report the accurate version while it is +still recommended or ``outdated'' as a catch-all for older versions. +% +For the uptime since the last cell was sent, reporting uptime in half-hour +time intervals could provide proficient accuracy. + +More work is necessary to evaluate the additional risks of adding more +statistics. +If these statistics are deemed important, they can +use the same infrastructure set up for user number estimation. +Directory authorities are expected to be upgraded quickly, so the +new statistics would become available as soon as enough clients +upgrade. + + +\subsection{Using entry guards as counting authorities} +To address the scalability concerns outlined above, an alternative approach +is to use the entry guards that a client connects to anyway. +Not reporting presence information via an anonymized channel to one +of the chosen guard nodes has the advantage of being more scalable +than either proposed system. +The entry guards can keep track of which IP addresses have already +reported presence information on a given day and refuse +to accept another counting cell. +Also, availability concerns are reduced because a given entry guard +will see fewer counting cells compared to a counting authority. + +Guards that support acting as counting authorities and choose to do so +should be marked as such in the consensus by a special flag +so that clients can see which relays are acting as counting authorities. + +\paragraph{Abuse potential and inaccuracies} +Using entry guards as counting authorities gives them the same +abuse abilities as directory authorities have in the system where +presence information is reported to one of them; but it could be easier +to filter out extreme values as the reported values are expected to +be generally lower. + +The directory authorities should make sure that enough guards exist +so that over and undercounting guards can be detected and excluded +by the metrics engine. + +\paragraph{Possibility for additional statistics} +Because guards know who is connecting to them, there is more concern +when adding additional statistics compared to the directory authority +approach. +By including additional information about their presence, Tor clients add +bits of information that can help identify them across IP address changes. +This must be prevented, so additional statistics can not be implemented +when using guard nodes without further analysis showing their safety. + +\subsection{Usefulness of counting cells} +Because of the presented attacks, counting cells are likely to be useful +in addition to other user number estimation schemes only. +They can, however, provide an easy way to evaluate trends and +might allow new statistics to be gathered. + +\section{Counting IP addresses at bridges} +\label{sec:bridges} + +As a special case of counting Tor users, we are interested in the number +of censored Tor users connecting via bridges. +Censored users cannot connect to the publicly known relays to download +directory information or establish circuits. +Censored users have to learn about one or more bridge relays which are +similar to normal relays except that they are not listed in the public +directory and are therefore harder to block. +Bridge clients fetch all their directory information and establish all +their circuits with a bridge as first entry point into the Tor network. +Bridges report the number of unique IP addresses they see every day. +Our current approach to count censored users is to simply sum up these +unique IP addresses per day and interpret the result as estimated user +number. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{bridge-users.pdf} +\caption{Estimated number of users connecting via bridges} +\label{fig:bridge-users} +\end{figure} + +Figure~\ref{fig:bridge-users} shows the estimated number of users +connecting via bridges. +These numbers are not expected to be as stable as the number of directly +connecting users, because some countries have successfully blocked relays or +even bridges in the past, which has led to sudden increases or decreases in +bridge user numbers. + +There are some shortcomings with this approach to count bridge users. +First, the approach makes the assumption that bridge users only connect to +a single bridge every day which is not necessarily the case. +As a result we may over-count bridge clients connecting to two or more +bridges. + +The second shortcoming is that we're excluding between 15 and 50~\% of +bridges from the statistics for various reasons: +bridges with fewer than 24 hours uptime are excluded, because bridges only +report statistics every 24 hours to hide the exact connection times and +protect the bridge users' privacy; +bridges that have been running as a non-bridge relay are excluded, because +they might report non-bridge users; +bridges without a GeoIP database are excluded, because they don't report +any statistics about connecting clients; +bridges running a few early versions of the 0.2.2 series are excluded, +because they had a bug in reporting bridge user statistics; +finally, an unknown number of bridges is excluded, because bridge +operators decide not to publish their bridge to the bridge authority and +circulate the bridge address to bridge users themselves. + +In the future, we might count the number of directory requests to bridges +in the same way as we do on directory mirrors. +Bridge clients need to refresh their view of the network at regular +intervals, too. +So, it should be possible to count bridge users in the same way as we +estimate directly connecting users. + +\section{Conclusion} +\label{sec:conclusion} + +In this report we described our current approaches to estimate daily Tor +users based on counting directory requests and unique IP addresses, and we +sketched a design to introduce special counting cells for this purpose. +We conclude with a brief summary. + +In Section~\ref{sec:auths} we discussed our current approaches for +counting new and returning as well as recurring users based on counting +directory requests. +We found that it is hard to interpret the estimate of new and returning +users without knowing how many hours per day our users are connected and +after how many hours or days they return. +We suggest discontinuance of this statistic because the rather +technical distinction between new/returning and recurring users is not +obvious. + +We described our approach to estimate recurring users based on directory +requests reported by directory mirror \texttt{trusted} in +Section~\ref{sec:current}. +We are facing two major problems with this approach, namely approximating +the request share that \texttt{trusted} can expect to see and the decrease +of said share over the past 12 months. +We recommend discontinuance of this statistic as well and recommend replacing it with a +statistic based on directory requests reported by multiple directory +mirrors. + +In Section~\ref{sec:combine} we described such an approach to combine the +directory requests from multiple directory mirrors. +This approach is based on the estimated number of directory bytes written +by directory mirrors. +We hope to gather more data from directory mirrors to improve this +promising approach. +Once we have confirmed its correctness, we propose to replace the current +two approaches to estimate direct users with this approach. + +We presented results from counting unique IP addresses on fast directory +mirrors in Section~\ref{sec:entry}. +These results are interesting, because they allow us to determine an upper +bound of daily users. +However, we did not find a simple way to combine reported unique IP +addresses of two or more directory mirrors in a privacy-preserving way. +Once the directory guard design is implemented, this approach won't +deliver useful estimates anymore. +We leave this problem as future work. + +In Section~\ref{sec:countingcell} we sketched a new design to introduce +counting cells that clients would send once a day to counting authorities +or entry guards. +Such an approach would allow us to gather better statistics about clients. +However, more work is needed to reduce the potential for abuse. + +Finally, in Section~\ref{sec:bridges} we described our current approach to +count censored users. +This statistic is based on the sum of unique IP addresses observed on +bridges with at least 24 hours uptime. +We suggest extending the statistics on bridges to count directory +requests. +We could then try to estimate the number of censored users by weighting +the observations with the bridges' reported bandwidth. +Again, we leave this extension as future work. + +\end{document} + diff --git a/2010/countingusers/dirbytes-mirrors.pdf b/2010/countingusers/dirbytes-mirrors.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..981c74b --- /dev/null +++ b/2010/countingusers/dirbytes-mirrors.pdf @@ -0,0 +1,1114 @@ +%PDF-1.4 +%âãÏÓ\r +1 0 obj +<< +/CreationDate (D:20101116150408) +/ModDate (D:20101116150408) +/Title (R 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[tech-reports/master] Add raw directory-requests report from 2009.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit 88b065625b9e67cb83ac37e4fbeb810bf2b95d00 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 15:56:46 2012 +0200 Add raw directory-requests report from 2009. --- 2009/directory-requests/.gitignore | 3 + 2009/directory-requests/countries.pdf | 799 ++++++++++++++ 2009/directory-requests/countries2.pdf | 1087 ++++++++++++++++++++ 2009/directory-requests/directory-requests.tex | 285 +++++ .../directory-requests/estimate-client-numbers.pdf | 264 +++++ .../estimate-conservative-client-numbers.pdf | 272 +++++ 2009/directory-requests/estimate-new-users.pdf | 225 ++++ .../estimate-request-numbers.pdf | 272 +++++ .../estimate-requests-per-ip.pdf | 276 +++++ 2009/directory-requests/shares.pdf | 495 +++++++++ 2009/directory-requests/total-ips.pdf | 430 ++++++++ 2009/directory-requests/total-requests.pdf | 422 ++++++++ 12 files changed, 4830 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-) diff --git a/2009/directory-requests/.gitignore b/2009/directory-requests/.gitignore new file mode 100644 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The number of daily users in the Tor network is still subject to educated guesses, and there are only few data available on the distribution of users to countries. This report analyzes client requests to twelve directories measured over 4 weeks in June 2009. Results include an estimation of the total number of Tor users and their distribution to countries. +\end{abstract} + +\section{Motivation} + +While a few facts are known about the infrastructure of the Tor network, we are still lacking many facts about its usage. The two most important questions that come to mind are: + +\begin{itemize} +\item How many users does the network have? +\item Where do these users come from? +\end{itemize} + +This report makes an attempt to answer these two questions by analyzing client requests to the directories. +The rationale is that directories obtain a local view on the network from the number of connecting clients and the number of requests they receive. +We propose a formula to derive a possible global view on the network. + +Further, the directories break down their observations of clients and requests by country by using a GeoIP database. From these data we can tell what fraction of users comes from which countries. + +\section{Data basis} + +This report is based on the measured client requests to a set of twelve directories (four directory authorities and eight directory mirrors). These twelve directories have been instrumented\footnote{More information on setting up a directory to measure these data can be found here: \url{http://archives.seul.org/or/dev/Jun-2009/msg00000.html}} to measure client requests and write them to a local file every 24 hours. These measurements have been performed between May 28 and June 25, 2009 with some directories being started later, being restarted (and therefore losing observations of the current 24-hour interval), or ending their measurements earlier. Table~\ref{tab:nodes} contains a list of these twelve directories together with their bandwidth settings. + +\begin{table} +\centering +\caption{Directories measuring GeoIP statistics for this analysis} +\label{tab:nodes} +\vspace{0.5cm} +\begin{tabular}{lcccl} +\toprule + & \multicolumn{3}{l}{Configured Bandwidth (KiB/s)} &\\ +Nickname & Rate & Burst & MaxAdvertised & Operator\\ +\midrule +trusted & 13312 & 15360 & -- & Jacob Appelbaum\\ +badbits & 20480 & 51200 & -- & Jacob Appelbaum\\ +moria1 & -- & -- & 10 & Roger Dingledine\\ +moria2 & -- & -- & 20 & Roger Dingledine\\ +moria5 & 50 & 1000 & -- & Roger Dingledine\\ +xpdmTindome & 50 & 200 & 20 & Marcus Griep\\ +fluxe3 & 150 & 200 & -- & Sebastian Hahn\\ +gabelmoo & 1024 & 1500 & 500 & Karsten Loesing\\ +hamsterrad & 200 & 500 & -- & Karsten Loesing\\ +ephemer2 & 90 & -- & -- & Steven J. Murdoch\\ +ides & -- & -- & 12 & Mike Perry\\ +vallenator & 2100 & 4000 & -- & Hans Schnehl\\ +\bottomrule +\end{tabular} +\end{table} + +The data that each of the twelve directories writes down after 24 hours of measurements consists of three main parts (see Figure~\ref{fig:data} for an example): + +\begin{itemize} +\item Unique IP addresses: The directories memorize which IP addresses they have seen within the past 24 hours and output the number of unique addresses per country (\texttt{ns-ips} and \texttt{ns-v2-ips} lines). +\item Directory requests: The directories also count the total number of requests by country, regardless of whether they come from an already known or a new IP address (\texttt{n-ns-reqs} and \texttt{n-v2-ns-reqs} lines). +\item Share of requests: The directories determine what share of requests they should see based on the probability of clients to pick them rather than other directories (\texttt{v2-ns-share} and \texttt{v3-ns-share} lines). +\end{itemize} + +\begin{figure} +\begin{verbatim} + written 2009-05-28 18:53:15 + started-at 2009-05-27 18:53:00 + ns-ips us=1056,de=536,fr=360,cn=208,kr=176,it=160,gb=152,.. + ns-v2-ips us=808,de=408,cn=296,kr=144,gb=136,ca=128,fr=104,.. + requests-start 2009-05-27 18:53:00 + n-ns-reqs us=1152,de=552,fr=376,cn=232,kr=232,gb=160,it=160,.. + n-v2-ns-reqs us=888,de=424,cn=320,kr=240,gb=144,ca=136,fr=112,.. + v2-ns-share 0.25% + v3-ns-share 0.26% +\end{verbatim} +\vspace{-0.3cm} +\caption{Example data of directory requests measured over 24 hours} +\label{fig:data} +\end{figure} + +\paragraph{Unique IP addresses} + +The directories count the number of unique IP addresses by country that they have seen over the past 24 hours. +For the sake of simplicity, every IP address is assumed to belong to a single user in the following analysis.\footnote{This assumption may be wrong with users being connected via dynamic IP addresses or using network address translation.} +Figure~\ref{fig:total-ips} shows the number of unique IP addresses that the directories have seen in 24-hour intervals. +The large differences in number of IP addresses are the result of different probabilities for clients selecting the directories. +Directory mirrors see more requests the more bandwidth they advertise, which is the minimum of the bandwidth rate (\texttt{Rate} column in Table~\ref{tab:nodes}), the maximum advertised bandwidth (\texttt{MaxAdvertised} column), and the maximum observed bandwidth (not shown in the table, varies over time). +In this graph, IP addresses requesting both versions of network statuses are counted twice, as the only available data are the numbers of unique IP addresses requesting a certain network status version. +This simplification seems acceptable, as clients do not request both network status versions during normal operation. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{total-ips.pdf} +\caption{Number of unique IP addresses seen per day} +\label{fig:total-ips} +\end{figure} + +The numbers are stable for most of the directories, except for \texttt{vallenator} that exhibits decreasing numbers over time. The reason is that the longer this directory ran, the more clients connected to it and the more version 2 network status requests were rejected with a \texttt{503 Busy} response. These unsuccessful requests (and the corresponding IP addresses) are not counted in the statistics. + +Further, there is a sudden decrease in the number of IP addresses seen at \texttt{hamsterrad} on June 9. This is the time when the relay obtains the \texttt{Guard} flag for the first time. Clients weight the probability of picking a guard node as directory mirror with only one third of the original probability. + +Similarly, \texttt{badbits} sees a rather low number of IP addresses compared to its advertised bandwidth due to the fact that it has the \texttt{Exit} flag. + +\paragraph{Directory requests} + +The directories further count the number of requests per country. +Figure~\ref{fig:total-requests} shows total request numbers as the sum of requests for version 2 statuses and version 3 consensuses. +Obviously, these numbers are higher than the number of unique IP addresses, because the same IP address can request more than one network status from the same directory within 24 hours. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{total-requests.pdf} +\caption{Total number of requests seen per day} +\label{fig:total-requests} +\end{figure} + +The number of requests seen by the four directory authorities \texttt{gabelmoo}, \texttt{ides}, \texttt{moria1}, and \texttt{moria2} are much higher than they would be when these four were directory mirrors. +The reason is that bootstrapping clients only know the addresses of the authorities and need to fetch their first network status from them. + +\paragraph{Share of requests} + +The third kind of data that directories report every 24 hours is the share of requests they think they should see. Figure~\ref{fig:shares} shows these shares for both version 2 network statuses (dashed lines) and version 3 consensuses (dotted lines). In most cases (without visible exception in the graph) these two shares are identical. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{shares.pdf} +\caption{Shares of directory requests that directories think they should see} +\label{fig:shares} +\end{figure} + +These shares are based on the directories' own advertised bandwidth as compared to the total advertised bandwidth in the network. These numbers do not take into account that directories might fail or are busy and therefore deny client requests. As a result, the real share that a directory sees would be higher than expected, because clients that fail at one directory retry at another subsequently. + +Table~\ref{tab:checkdirs} shows the (non-representative) results of one test run to download v3 consensuses from all directory mirrors in the network performed on June 24. Requests were started with a delay of 10 seconds and given 10 minutes to finish. Of the 875 requests, only 309 (35\%) succeeded with status code 200. The other 65\% were considered as bad request (status code 400, 0.1\%), were not found (status code 404, 4\%), were rejected because the directory was busy (status code 503, 36\%), or failed because no connection could be established to the directory (labelled Error in the table, 24\%). Connection errors included unability to find a route to the host, connection refusals, and timeouts. + +When considering the advertised bandwidths of directories, the total bandwidth of these directories answering with status code 200 is 233077 KiB/s (79\%) and therefore much higher than only 35\%. That means that 79\% of all client requests are answered correctly. The mean bandwidth of directories accepting directory requests is 754 KiB/s in contrast to 253, 219, 124, or 64 KiB/s for failing directories for the various reasons. Apparently, the likelihood of a positive answer increases with the advertised bandwidth of a directory. As a result, all reported shares in this report are divided by 80\% to compensate failing directory requests in the network. + +\begin{table} +\centering +\caption{Results of version 3 consensus downloads from all directory mirrors} +\label{tab:checkdirs} +\vspace{0.5cm} +\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrr} +\toprule + & 200 & 400 & 404 & 503 & Error & All\\ +\midrule +Number of requests & 309 & 1 & 35 & 318 & 212 & 875\\ +Bandwidth sum (KiB/s) & 233077 & 253 & 7666 & 39302 & 13650 & 293948\\ +Bandwidth mean (KiB/s) & 754 & 253 & 219 & 124 & 64 & 336\\ +\bottomrule +\end{tabular} +\end{table} + +\section{Estimating total user numbers} + +The most important metric to be answered by this report is the number of users that connect to the network per day. This report makes an attempt to estimate total user numbers, focusing on version 3 network consensuses, i.e., on client versions 0.2.0.x or higher.\footnote{It is significantly harder to estimate the number of clients running versions 0.1.2.x or older. The reason is that many requests for version 2 network statuses are rejected with a \texttt{503 Busy} reply, especially on directories with rather low bandwidth. This adds considerable uncertainty into estimates. However, with 0.1.2.x being phased out, the fraction of clients downloading version 2 will soon decrease anyway.} + +The directories measuring directory requests each have only a local view on the network. In the following analysis, these local views shall be used to derive a global view of the number of users in the network. In the following, %three +two +attempts are made to estimate the number of users: First, the number of new or returning users are estimated from the number of requests seen at the directory authorities. Second, we guess the number of always-on users from the requests seen at directory mirrors under the conservative assumption that every user makes 10 requests for network statuses per day. %And third, we try to derive a way to estimate for the number of regular users more accurately which, however, still appears to be faulty. // TODO experimental + +\paragraph{Estimate of new or returning users} + +The number of new or returning users can be estimated from looking at the number of requests that the directory authorities see. New and returning clients do not know any directory mirrors and therefore have to ask one of the directory authorities for the current network status. Clients are selecting one of the currently six authorities at random with equal probability. However, that does not necessarily mean that every authority sees exactly 1/6 of all requests: The authority \texttt{dannenberg} has been offline since June 11, 2009, 14:00 UTC, so that the other authorities have processed 1/5 of all requests. Further, the IP address of \texttt{gabelmoo} has changed in December 2008, so that some clients tried to download the consensus from the old IP address and failed. Between June 20 and 22, \texttt{gabelmoo} has received about 56\% as many requests as \texttt{moria1} and \texttt{ides} did. For this analysis we use the factors from in Table~\ref{tab:auth-shares} as estimat es to conclude the number of new or returning users from local observations. Figure~\ref{fig:estimate-new-users} shows the resulting estimate of new or returning users. + +\begin{table} +\centering +\caption{Shares of directory requests coming from new and returning users that directory authorities should see} +\label{tab:auth-shares} +\vspace{0.5cm} +\begin{tabular}{lcc} +\toprule + & \texttt{gabelmoo} & \texttt{ides} and \texttt{moria1}\\ +\midrule +May 28 to June 11 & $\frac{56\%}{56\% + 5 \times 100\%} = 10.072\%$ & $\frac{100\%}{56\% + 5 \times 100\%} = 17.986\%$\\ +June 12 to June 25 & $\frac{56\%}{56\% + 4 \times 100\%} = 12.281\%$ & $\frac{100\%}{56\% + 4 \times 100\%} = 21.930\%$\\ +\bottomrule +\end{tabular} +\end{table} + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{estimate-new-users.pdf} +\caption{Estimate of new or returning users in the network per day} +\label{fig:estimate-new-users} +\end{figure} + +\paragraph{%Conservative +Estimate of always-on users} + +As soon as clients have bootstrapped, they need fresh network statuses every 2 to 3 hours. Clients download these network statuses from directory mirrors and avoid bothering the directory authorities again. As a result, we should be able to count the number of always-on users from the local views that the directory mirrors have. In the following analysis, only those directory mirrors seeing at least 0.1\% of all requests shall be considered. +The three data points for this estimation are: + +\begin{itemize} +\item Number of locally seen requests: $r$ +\item Number of directly connecting clients: $c$ +\item The corrected share of requests that we should see: $s$ +\end{itemize} + +From these numbers we can determine the number of \emph{requests} in the whole network ($Q$): $Q = {r}/{s}$. The assumption is that every client makes an independent decision for each network status download which directory to ask. Figure~\ref{fig:estimate-request-numbers} shows estimates of total requests in the network per day. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{estimate-request-numbers.pdf} +\caption{Estimated number of directory requests in the network per day} +\label{fig:estimate-request-numbers} +\end{figure} + +The numbers of requests in the network ($Q$) is the product of the number of clients ($N$) and the number of requests each client sends on average ($x$). +There are probably very different usage patterns influencing the average number of requests that each user sends per day. Some users might connect only for a few minutes while others are connected to the network for the whole day. The former users would send exactly 1 request per day, the latter would send a new request every 2--3 hours, i.e., up to 10 requests per day. +For this conservative estimation of user numbers we make the assumption that every user requests 10 network statuses per day. This assumption probably leads to undercounting the number of users. +Figure~\ref{fig:estimate-conservative-client-numbers} shows the estimated number of clients using this assumption. +Most estimates are in an interval from 100,000 and 300,000 users per day, however closer to 100,000 than to 300,000. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{estimate-conservative-client-numbers.pdf} +\caption{%Conservatively +Estimated number of unique IP addresses in the network per day} +\label{fig:estimate-conservative-client-numbers} +\end{figure} + +\experimental{ +\paragraph{Experimental estimate of always-on users} + +Instead of making assumptions for the number of requests that each user makes, we can try to derive this number from local information. Therefore, we take advantage of two relationships between observed numbers: + +\begin{itemize} +\item We already know that the total number of requests ($Q$) is the product of every user ($N$) sending a certain number of requests on average per day ($x$): $Q = N \times x$. +\item From the assumed average number of requests ($x$) and the share of requests that we should see ($s$), we can determine the probability for a client to ask us \emph{at least once} in 24 hours. This probability is the complementary probability of not being asked a single time: $1-(1-s)^x$. We can use this probability to estimate how many clients there are in the network from the number of clients we have seen: $N \times (1-(1-s)^x) = c$. +\end{itemize} + +These two equations with 2 variables ($N$ and $x$) can be combined to one equation with 1 variable ($N$): $N \times (1-(1-s)^{{Q}/{N}}) = c$. In the next step, we can calculate $N$ and $x$ separately. + +Figure~\ref{fig:estimate-requests-per-ip} shows the estimates of requests per clients and Figure~\ref{fig:estimate-client-numbers} the estimates of total users in the network. + +Unfortunately, these results are very likely wrong, as an average of 40 requests per client per day seems highly unrealistic. Finding the error in this calculation is subject to future analyses. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{estimate-requests-per-ip.pdf} +\caption{Experimentally estimated number of requests sent per user per day} +\label{fig:estimate-requests-per-ip} +\end{figure} + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{estimate-client-numbers.pdf} +\caption{Experimentally estimated number of unique IP addresses in the network per day} +\label{fig:estimate-client-numbers} +\end{figure} +} + +\section{Number of users by country} + +The next interesting metric is the distribution of users to countries. +These numbers can be determined more easily, as the directories already break down their observations by country. + +Figure~\ref{fig:countries} shows the fractions of users by country as seen on the twelve directories and averaged over all of them. The left bars denote version 2 requests, the right bars version 3 requests. Only the top 10 countries are displayed. +%(Should these fractions be calculated from requests or IP addresses?) + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{countries.pdf} +\caption{Fractions of users by country} +\label{fig:countries} +\end{figure} + +Figure~\ref{fig:countries2} shows the same fractions for 19 countries which might restrict Internet usage for local users. In addition to the named seven countries, the graph also shows client requests (in decreasing order) from Kazakhstan, Belarus, Jordan, Syria, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Myanmar, Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia. One interesting point in this figure is the large share of Iranian version 3 requests answered by \texttt{gabelmoo} in comparison to the other two authorities \texttt{moria1} and \texttt{ides}. It is noteworthy in this context that \texttt{gabelmoo} is the only authority of these three listening on directory port \texttt{443}. However, a possible explanation for the differences might be that the directories measured slightly different time intervals. + +\begin{figure} +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{countries2.pdf} +\caption{Fractions of users in potentially censoring countries} +\label{fig:countries2} +\end{figure} + +\section{Future work} + +\experimental{ +One of the next steps in this analysis is to find the mistake in the experimental estimation of user numbers. The assumption of 10 requests per user per day seems too high, though we are still missing a better number. The result of the experimental estimation of 40 requests per user per day seems even less realistic, though. +} + +This analysis is based on the most comprehensive data set available on network usage up to this point. The logical next step is to measure and aggregate directory requests on most or all directories in the network and establish a central repository for these aggregate data. It seems that directories with configured bandwidths of at least 200 KiB/s would be most useful. + +Another direction for future work is the comparison of requests to the directories with bridge clients connecting to bridges or regular clients connecting to entry guards. Bridges already gather similar statistics about their users, and it is planned to make entry guards do the same in the near future. While entry guards should see similar total user numbers and distributions to countries, bridges might exhibit a different user set. + +\end{document} + diff --git a/2009/directory-requests/estimate-client-numbers.pdf b/2009/directory-requests/estimate-client-numbers.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5cf9e04 --- /dev/null +++ b/2009/directory-requests/estimate-client-numbers.pdf @@ -0,0 +1,264 @@ +%PDF-1.4 +%âãÏÓ\r +1 0 obj +<< +/CreationDate (D:20090626184246) +/ModDate (D:20090626184246) +/Title (R Graphics Output) +/Producer (R 2.8.1) +/Creator (R) +>> +endobj +2 0 obj +<< +/Type /Catalog +/Pages 3 0 R +>> +endobj +5 0 obj +<< +/Type /Page +/Parent 3 0 R +/Contents 6 0 R +/Resources 4 0 R +>> +endobj +6 0 obj +<< +/Length 7 0 R +>> +stream +q +Q q 56.16 59.04 440.64 280.80 re W n +1.000 0.647 0.000 RG +1.50 w +[] 0 d +1 J +1 j +10.00 M +72.48 174.27 m +87.05 187.78 l +101.62 212.32 l +116.19 215.65 l +130.77 191.30 l +145.34 194.96 l +S +174.48 187.18 m +189.05 189.24 l 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33.12 Tm (June 11) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 357.25 33.12 Tm (June 18) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 442.57 33.12 Tm (June 25, 2009) Tj +ET +56.16 69.44 m 56.16 331.91 l S +56.16 69.44 m 48.96 69.44 l S +56.16 121.93 m 48.96 121.93 l S +56.16 174.43 m 48.96 174.43 l S +56.16 226.92 m 48.96 226.92 l S +56.16 279.42 m 48.96 279.42 l S +56.16 331.91 m 48.96 331.91 l S +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 35.09 65.13 Tm (0) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 117.63 Tm (100) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 170.12 Tm (200) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 222.62 Tm (300) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 275.11 Tm (400) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 327.61 Tm (500) Tj +ET +Q q 56.16 59.04 440.64 280.80 re W n +0.545 0.000 0.000 RG +1.50 w +[] 0 d +1 J +1 j +10.00 M +203.62 227.71 m +218.19 170.56 l +232.77 190.58 l +247.34 193.32 l +261.91 160.39 l +276.48 134.60 l +291.05 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12.00 496.80 116.59 Tm (trusted) Tj +ET +Q +endstream +endobj +7 0 obj +3227 +endobj +3 0 obj +<< +/Type /Pages +/Kids [ +5 0 R +] +/Count 1 +/MediaBox [0 0 576 360] +>> +endobj +4 0 obj +<< +/ProcSet [/PDF /Text] +/Font <</F2 9 0 R /F3 10 0 R >> +/ExtGState << >> +>> +endobj +8 0 obj +<< +/Type /Encoding +/BaseEncoding /WinAnsiEncoding +/Differences [ 45/minus 96/quoteleft +144/dotlessi /grave /acute /circumflex /tilde /macron /breve /dotaccent +/dieresis /.notdef /ring /cedilla /.notdef /hungarumlaut /ogonek /caron /space] +>> +endobj +9 0 obj << +/Type /Font +/Subtype /Type1 +/Name /F2 +/BaseFont /Helvetica +/Encoding 8 0 R +>> endobj +10 0 obj << +/Type /Font +/Subtype /Type1 +/Name /F3 +/BaseFont /Helvetica-Bold +/Encoding 8 0 R +>> endobj +xref +0 11 +0000000000 65535 f +0000000021 00000 n +0000000163 00000 n +0000003592 00000 n +0000003675 00000 n +0000000212 00000 n +0000000292 00000 n +0000003572 00000 n +0000003767 00000 n +0000004024 00000 n +0000004120 00000 n +trailer +<< 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119.47 l +349.34 126.68 l +363.91 111.27 l +378.48 139.09 l +393.05 156.10 l +407.62 132.68 l +422.19 214.74 l +436.77 280.79 l +451.34 191.32 l +465.91 193.33 l +480.48 244.16 l +S +Q q +BT +0.000 0.000 0.000 rg +/F3 1 Tf 14.00 0.00 -0.00 14.00 53.38 344.89 Tm (Estimated number of new or returning users in the network per day) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 263.15 4.32 Tm (Time) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 0.00 12.00 -12.00 0.00 10.08 131.54 Tm (New users $in thousands$) Tj +ET +Q q +0.000 0.000 0.000 RG +0.75 w +[] 0 d +1 J +1 j +10.00 M +72.48 59.04 m 480.48 59.04 l S +72.48 59.04 m 72.48 51.84 l S +174.48 59.04 m 174.48 51.84 l S +276.48 59.04 m 276.48 51.84 l S +378.48 59.04 m 378.48 51.84 l S +480.48 59.04 m 480.48 51.84 l S +BT +0.000 0.000 0.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 36.31 33.12 Tm (May 28, 2009) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 156.59 33.12 Tm (June 4) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 255.25 33.12 Tm (June 11) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 357.25 33.12 Tm (June 18) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 442.57 33.12 Tm (June 25, 2009) Tj +ET +56.16 79.72 m 56.16 299.17 l S +56.16 79.72 m 48.96 79.72 l S +56.16 134.59 m 48.96 134.59 l S +56.16 189.45 m 48.96 189.45 l S +56.16 244.31 m 48.96 244.31 l S +56.16 299.17 m 48.96 299.17 l S +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 28.42 75.41 Tm (95) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 130.28 Tm (100) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 185.14 Tm (105) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 240.00 Tm (110) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 21.74 294.87 Tm (115) Tj +ET +Q q 56.16 59.04 440.64 280.80 re W n +1.000 0.549 0.000 RG +1.50 w +[] 0 d +1 J +1 j +10.00 M +407.62 151.29 m +422.19 233.85 l +436.77 259.94 l +451.34 208.12 l +465.91 124.85 l +480.48 156.65 l +S +0.000 0.000 1.000 RG +407.62 133.88 m +422.19 258.77 l +436.77 220.75 l +S +Q q +BT +1.000 0.549 0.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 496.80 152.35 Tm (gabelmoo) Tj +ET +BT +0.000 0.000 1.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 496.80 216.44 Tm (ides) Tj +ET +BT +0.000 0.545 0.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 496.80 239.85 Tm (moria1) Tj +ET +Q +endstream +endobj +7 0 obj +2426 +endobj +3 0 obj +<< +/Type /Pages +/Kids [ +5 0 R +] +/Count 1 +/MediaBox [0 0 576 360] +>> +endobj +4 0 obj +<< +/ProcSet [/PDF /Text] +/Font <</F2 9 0 R /F3 10 0 R >> +/ExtGState << >> +>> +endobj +8 0 obj +<< +/Type /Encoding +/BaseEncoding /WinAnsiEncoding +/Differences [ 45/minus 96/quoteleft +144/dotlessi /grave /acute /circumflex /tilde /macron /breve /dotaccent +/dieresis /.notdef /ring /cedilla /.notdef /hungarumlaut /ogonek /caron /space] +>> +endobj +9 0 obj << +/Type /Font +/Subtype /Type1 +/Name /F2 +/BaseFont /Helvetica +/Encoding 8 0 R +>> endobj +10 0 obj << +/Type /Font +/Subtype /Type1 +/Name /F3 +/BaseFont /Helvetica-Bold +/Encoding 8 0 R +>> endobj +xref +0 11 +0000000000 65535 f +0000000021 00000 n +0000000163 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+116.19 149.98 l +130.77 154.84 l +145.34 150.67 l +S +174.48 145.37 m +189.05 154.98 l +203.62 153.41 l +218.19 150.66 l +232.77 156.65 l +247.34 138.16 l +261.91 223.69 l +276.48 182.78 l +291.05 136.50 l +305.62 109.04 l +320.19 110.87 l +334.77 114.04 l +349.34 118.62 l +363.91 116.96 l +378.48 120.19 l +393.05 120.36 l +407.62 122.13 l +422.19 123.80 l +436.77 131.38 l +451.34 129.71 l +465.91 126.02 l +480.48 128.97 l +S +Q q +BT +0.000 0.000 0.000 rg +/F3 1 Tf 14.00 0.00 -0.00 14.00 67.87 344.89 Tm (Estimated number of directory requests in the network per day) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 263.15 4.32 Tm (Time) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 0.00 12.00 -12.00 0.00 10.08 118.58 Tm (Directory requests $in millions$) Tj +ET +Q q +0.000 0.000 0.000 RG +0.75 w +[] 0 d +1 J +1 j +10.00 M +72.48 59.04 m 480.48 59.04 l S +72.48 59.04 m 72.48 51.84 l S +174.48 59.04 m 174.48 51.84 l S +276.48 59.04 m 276.48 51.84 l S +378.48 59.04 m 378.48 51.84 l S +480.48 59.04 m 480.48 51.84 l S +BT +0.000 0.000 0.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 36.31 33.12 Tm (May 28, 2009) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 156.59 33.12 Tm (June 4) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 255.25 33.12 Tm (June 11) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 357.25 33.12 Tm (June 18) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 442.57 33.12 Tm (June 25, 2009) Tj +ET +56.16 69.44 m 56.16 329.44 l S +56.16 69.44 m 48.96 69.44 l S +56.16 121.44 m 48.96 121.44 l S +56.16 173.44 m 48.96 173.44 l S +56.16 225.44 m 48.96 225.44 l S +56.16 277.44 m 48.96 277.44 l S +56.16 329.44 m 48.96 329.44 l S +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 35.09 65.13 Tm (0) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 35.09 117.13 Tm (1) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 35.09 169.13 Tm (2) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 35.09 221.13 Tm (3) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 35.09 273.13 Tm (4) Tj +ET +BT +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 35.09 325.13 Tm (5) Tj +ET +Q q 56.16 59.04 440.64 280.80 re W n +0.545 0.000 0.000 RG +1.50 w +[] 0 d +1 J +1 j +10.00 M +203.62 226.22 m +218.19 169.61 l +232.77 189.43 l +247.34 192.16 l +261.91 159.53 l +276.48 133.98 l +291.05 118.39 l +305.62 109.12 l +320.19 111.01 l +334.77 120.80 l +349.34 124.82 l +S +0.000 0.000 0.000 RG +174.48 175.04 m +189.05 199.37 l +203.62 177.37 l +218.19 173.24 l +232.77 189.52 l +247.34 168.43 l +261.91 176.91 l +276.48 172.11 l +291.05 180.37 l +305.62 206.89 l +320.19 154.64 l +334.77 140.67 l +349.34 326.99 l +363.91 169.12 l +378.48 250.72 l +S +0.745 0.745 0.745 RG +174.48 108.66 m +189.05 114.93 l +203.62 113.54 l +218.19 108.44 l +232.77 111.12 l +247.34 122.04 l +261.91 116.88 l +276.48 127.17 l +291.05 116.78 l +305.62 116.67 l +320.19 110.79 l +334.77 110.09 l +349.34 118.39 l +363.91 118.46 l +378.48 118.12 l +393.05 120.41 l +S +Q q +BT +1.000 0.647 0.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 496.80 124.67 Tm (hamsterrad) Tj +ET +BT +0.545 0.000 0.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 496.80 120.51 Tm (vallenator) Tj +ET +BT +0.000 0.000 0.000 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 496.80 246.42 Tm (badbits) Tj +ET +BT +0.745 0.745 0.745 rg +/F2 1 Tf 12.00 0.00 -0.00 12.00 496.80 116.10 Tm (trusted) Tj +ET +Q +endstream +endobj +7 0 obj +3214 +endobj +3 0 obj +<< +/Type /Pages +/Kids [ +5 0 R +] +/Count 1 +/MediaBox [0 0 576 360] +>> +endobj +4 0 obj +<< +/ProcSet [/PDF /Text] +/Font <</F2 9 0 R /F3 10 0 R >> +/ExtGState << >> +>> +endobj +8 0 obj +<< +/Type /Encoding +/BaseEncoding /WinAnsiEncoding +/Differences [ 45/minus 96/quoteleft +144/dotlessi /grave /acute /circumflex /tilde /macron /breve /dotaccent +/dieresis /.notdef /ring /cedilla /.notdef /hungarumlaut /ogonek /caron /space] +>> +endobj +9 0 obj << +/Type /Font +/Subtype /Type1 +/Name /F2 +/BaseFont /Helvetica +/Encoding 8 0 R +>> endobj +10 0 obj << +/Type /Font +/Subtype /Type1 +/Name /F3 +/BaseFont /Helvetica-Bold +/Encoding 8 0 R +>> endobj +xref +0 11 +0000000000 65535 f +0000000021 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[tech-reports/master] Update countingusers report to new style.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit ba37b809bcdada341b1f5d5cf7126cc2667f3780 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 16:06:38 2012 +0200 Update countingusers report to new style. --- 2010/countingusers/countingusers.tex | 12 ++++++------ 2010/countingusers/tortechrep.cls | 1 + 2 files changed, 7 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/2010/countingusers/countingusers.tex b/2010/countingusers/countingusers.tex index c05f2b5..0ea4fb9 100644 --- a/2010/countingusers/countingusers.tex +++ b/2010/countingusers/countingusers.tex @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ -\documentclass{article} -\usepackage[pdftex]{graphicx} -\usepackage{graphics} -\usepackage{color} - +\documentclass{tortechrep} +\usepackage{graphicx} \begin{document} -\author{Sebastian Hahn and Karsten Loesing\\{\tt\{sebastian,karsten\}(a)torproject.org}} +\author{Sebastian Hahn and Karsten Loesing} +\contact{\{sebastian,karsten\}(a)torproject.org} +\reportid{2010-11-001} +\date{November 30, 2010} \title{Privacy-preserving Ways to\\Estimate the Number of Tor Users} %Counting Users in the Tor Network in a Privacy-Preserving Way \maketitle diff --git a/2010/countingusers/tortechrep.cls b/2010/countingusers/tortechrep.cls new file mode 120000 index 0000000..4c24db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/2010/countingusers/tortechrep.cls @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +../../tortechrep.cls \ No newline at end of file

1 0

[tech-reports/master] Update geoipdbcomp report to new style.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit 7e5d373e04f6a4d555618717b8a98ddec473fd63 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 16:22:06 2012 +0200 Update geoipdbcomp report to new style. --- 2009/geoipdbcomp/geoipdbcomp.tex | 18 ++++++++---------- 2009/geoipdbcomp/tortechrep.cls | 1 + 2 files changed, 9 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/2009/geoipdbcomp/geoipdbcomp.tex b/2009/geoipdbcomp/geoipdbcomp.tex index 6881b44..f10a011 100644 --- a/2009/geoipdbcomp/geoipdbcomp.tex +++ b/2009/geoipdbcomp/geoipdbcomp.tex @@ -1,14 +1,12 @@ -\documentclass{article} -\usepackage{url} -\usepackage[dvips]{graphicx} -\usepackage{graphics} -\usepackage{color} -\usepackage{booktabs} -\usepackage{multirow} -\newcommand{\experimental}[1]{} +\documentclass{tortechrep} +\usepackage{graphicx} \begin{document} + \title{Comparison of GeoIP Databases for Tor} -\author{Karsten Loesing\\\url{karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net}} +\author{Karsten Loesing} +\contact{karsten(a)torproject.org} +\reportid{2009-10-001} +\date{October 23, 2009} \maketitle \begin{abstract} @@ -72,7 +70,7 @@ The colors are chosen rather arbitrarily just in order to distinguish different country codes from \texttt{AA} to \texttt{IQ} are displayed in different shades of red, codes from \texttt{IR} to \texttt{RH} in shades of green, and codes from \texttt{RI} to \texttt{ZZ} in shades of blue. In this and all subsequent analyses, the following ranges of reserved IP addresses have been removed from all databases: -0.0.0.0/8, 10.0.0.0/8, 127.0.0.0/8, 169.254.0.0/16, 172.16.0.0/20, 192.0.0.0/24, 192.0.2.0/24, 192.88.99.0/24, \linebreak192.168.0.0/16, 198.18.0.0/16, 198.51.100.0/24, 203.0.113.0/24, and 224.0.0.0/3. +0.0.0.0/8, 10.0.0.0/8, 127.0.0.0/8, 169.254.0.0/16, 172.16.0.0/20, 192.0.0.0/24, 192.0.2.0/24, 192.88.99.0/24, 192.168.0.0/16, 198.18.0.0/16, 198.51.100.0/24, 203.0.113.0/24, and 224.0.0.0/3. %0.0.0.0..0.255.255.255 0.0.0.0/8 %10.0.0.0..10.255.255.255 10.0.0.0/8 %127.0.0.0..127.255.255.255 127.0.0.0/8 diff --git a/2009/geoipdbcomp/tortechrep.cls b/2009/geoipdbcomp/tortechrep.cls new file mode 120000 index 0000000..4c24db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/2009/geoipdbcomp/tortechrep.cls @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +../../tortechrep.cls \ No newline at end of file

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[tech-reports/master] Update torperf report to new style.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit 7d2bac3c36655bfa35d62559e02e07f220172787 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 16:28:19 2012 +0200 Update torperf report to new style. --- 2009/torperf/torperf.tex | 19 +++++++++---------- 2009/torperf/tortechrep.cls | 1 + 2 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/2009/torperf/torperf.tex b/2009/torperf/torperf.tex index 8697a91..16b72fc 100644 --- a/2009/torperf/torperf.tex +++ b/2009/torperf/torperf.tex @@ -1,13 +1,12 @@ -\documentclass{article} -\usepackage{url} -\usepackage[dvips]{graphicx} -\usepackage{graphics} -\usepackage{color} -\usepackage{booktabs} -\usepackage{multirow} +\documentclass{tortechrep} +\usepackage{graphicx} \begin{document} + \title{Performance of Requests over the Tor Network} \author{Karsten Loesing} +\contact{karsten(a)torproject.org} +\reportid{2009-09-001} +\date{September 22, 2009} \maketitle \section{Introduction} @@ -39,13 +38,13 @@ The following configuration parameters are used: minutes,\linebreak \texttt{MaxCircuitDirtiness} of 1 minute, no entry guards. \item 1 MiB file, downloaded every 30 minutes, timeout of 29:55 minutes, -default \texttt{MaxCircuitDirtiness} of 10 minutes, no entry guards. +default\linebreak \texttt{MaxCircuitDirtiness} of 10 minutes, no entry guards. \item 5 MiB file, downloaded every 60 minutes, timeout of 59:55 minutes, -default \texttt{MaxCircuitDirtiness} of 10 minutes, no entry guards. +default\linebreak \texttt{MaxCircuitDirtiness} of 10 minutes, no entry guards. \end{itemize} A more detailed howto describing the setup can be found here:\linebreak -\url{https://tor-svn.freehaven.net/svn/torperf/trunk/measurements-HOWTO} +\url{https://gitweb.torproject.org/torperf.git/blob/HEAD:/measurements-HOWTO} \section{Results} diff --git a/2009/torperf/tortechrep.cls b/2009/torperf/tortechrep.cls new file mode 120000 index 0000000..4c24db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/2009/torperf/tortechrep.cls @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +../../tortechrep.cls \ No newline at end of file

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[tech-reports/master] Update bufferstats report to new style.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit c3e3522b488b9bcb56d14a4dd55dcfd99aeac5f7 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 16:32:51 2012 +0200 Update bufferstats report to new style. --- 2009/bufferstats/bufferstats.tex | 11 ++++++----- 2009/bufferstats/tortechrep.cls | 1 + 2 files changed, 7 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/2009/bufferstats/bufferstats.tex b/2009/bufferstats/bufferstats.tex index 2f5e260..137ac8e 100644 --- a/2009/bufferstats/bufferstats.tex +++ b/2009/bufferstats/bufferstats.tex @@ -1,12 +1,13 @@ -\documentclass{article} -\usepackage[dvips]{graphicx} -\usepackage{graphics} -\usepackage{color} +\documentclass{tortechrep} +\usepackage{graphicx} \usepackage{booktabs} -\usepackage{multirow} \begin{document} + \title{Analysis of Circuit Queues in Tor} \author{Karsten Loesing} +\contact{karsten(a)torproject.org} +\reportid{2009-08-001} +\date{August 25, 2009} \maketitle \section{Background on queues and buffers in Tor} diff --git a/2009/bufferstats/tortechrep.cls b/2009/bufferstats/tortechrep.cls new file mode 120000 index 0000000..4c24db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/2009/bufferstats/tortechrep.cls @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +../../tortechrep.cls \ No newline at end of file

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[tech-reports/master] Update flagrequirements report to new style.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit de1664718555a2baca0600bba8a39521384dcd15 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 16:59:03 2012 +0200 Update flagrequirements report to new style. --- 2009/flagrequirements/flagrequirements.tex | 33 +++++++++++++++++----------- 2009/flagrequirements/tortechrep.cls | 1 + 2 files changed, 21 insertions(+), 13 deletions(-) diff --git a/2009/flagrequirements/flagrequirements.tex b/2009/flagrequirements/flagrequirements.tex index d9f9a7c..5f3895a 100644 --- a/2009/flagrequirements/flagrequirements.tex +++ b/2009/flagrequirements/flagrequirements.tex @@ -1,35 +1,42 @@ -\documentclass{article} -\usepackage{url} -\usepackage[dvips]{graphicx} -\usepackage{graphics} -\usepackage{color} +\documentclass{tortechrep} +\usepackage{graphicx} \begin{document} -\title{Measuring the Tor Network\\{\large Alternative Requirements for Relay Flags}} -\author{Sebastian Hahn, Karsten Loesing, Steven J.\ Murdoch} + +\title{Measuring the Tor Network} +\subtitle{Alternative Requirements for Relay Flags} +\author{Sebastian Hahn, Karsten Loesing, and Steven J.\ Murdoch} +\contact{\{sebastian,karsten\}@torproject.org,steven.murdoch@cl.cam.ac.uk} +\reportid{2009-04-001\footnote{This report is mostly superseded by report 2011-06-001.}} +\date{April 11, 2009} \maketitle \begin{abstract} This document describes the simulation results of alternative requirements for relays to obtain the \texttt{Fast}, \texttt{Stable}, and \texttt{Guard} flags. The simulation is based on the directory archives of descriptors between January 2008 and February 2009. -All scripts and a howto for performing the evaluation can be found under: \url{git://git.torproject.org/~karsten/git/metrics/} +%All scripts and a howto for performing the evaluation can be found under: \url{git://git.torproject.org/~karsten/git/metrics/} \end{abstract} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{discrepancy.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{discrepancy.pdf} \caption{This first graph shows the inevitable discrepancy between simulation results and reality. There are at least three sources of error: First, only a sample of 1/8 of all relays was considered in the simulation for performance reasons. Second, the simulation is limited to relay uptimes as referenced from hourly snapshots which are more coarse-grained than continuous connectivity information. Third, the number of relays with \texttt{Stable} and \texttt{Guard} flags in the archive data varies by up to 200 relays due to a bug in the consensus process which is not contained in the simulation.} \end{figure} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{stable.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{stable.pdf} \caption{One requirement for being assigning the \texttt{Stable} flag is a relay's weighted mean time between failures (MTBF). A relay gets the \texttt{Stable} flag if it has a higher MTBF than the median of all active relays. The graph shows alternative percentiles between 25 and 75\%. Obviously, if the requirement is relaxed to having a MTBF higher than only 25\% of all relays, the number of \texttt{Stable} flags increases; if the requirement is raised to 75\%, the number of \texttt{Stable} flags decreases. The lines for 62.5 and 75\% overlap in parts, because of a fixed MTBF limit of 5 days which some relays reach even though not being in the top 25\% of all relays.} \end{figure} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{guardexits.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{guardexits.pdf} \caption{Currently, a relay cannot be assigned both the \texttt{Guard} and the \texttt{Exit} flag. The reason for the two sets being distinct is the attempt not to overload the rare exit nodes with guard traffic. Unsurprisingly, if this requirement was dropped, the number of relays with the \texttt{Guard} flag would increase significantly.} \end{figure} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{guardbw.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{guardbw.pdf} \caption{One requirement for obtaining the \texttt{Guard} flag is having an advertised bandwidth that is at least the median of all ``familiar'' relays (familiar means being in the set of 7/8 of relays with highest weighted time known). If the requirement of having an advertised bandwidth of the median of familiar relays is relaxed to the advertised bandwidth only 25\% of familiar relays, the number of \texttt{Guard} flags increases. Likewise, requiring 75\% leads to decrease of \texttt{Guard} flags.} \end{figure} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{guardwfu.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{guardwfu.pdf} \caption{Another requirement for the \texttt{Guard} flag is a weighted fractional uptime of at least 0.995, i.e., that a relay was available for at least 99.5\% of the time it is known to a directory. If this requirement is relaxed to 0.95, 0.9, 0.8, or even 0.7, the number of \texttt{Guard} flags increases as shown in this graph.} \end{figure} \end{document} diff --git a/2009/flagrequirements/tortechrep.cls b/2009/flagrequirements/tortechrep.cls new file mode 120000 index 0000000..4c24db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/2009/flagrequirements/tortechrep.cls @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +../../tortechrep.cls \ No newline at end of file

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[tech-reports/master] Update directory-requests report to new style.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit a008a782f6ebdf7cd9430d48d7529fa8dccbd6c6 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 17:07:36 2012 +0200 Update directory-requests report to new style. --- 2009/directory-requests/directory-requests.tex | 17 +++++++++-------- 2009/directory-requests/tortechrep.cls | 1 + 2 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/2009/directory-requests/directory-requests.tex b/2009/directory-requests/directory-requests.tex index 7359b63..d87abd3 100644 --- a/2009/directory-requests/directory-requests.tex +++ b/2009/directory-requests/directory-requests.tex @@ -1,14 +1,15 @@ -\documentclass{article} -\usepackage{url} -\usepackage[dvips]{graphicx} -\usepackage{graphics} -\usepackage{color} +\documentclass{tortechrep} +\usepackage{graphicx} \usepackage{booktabs} -\usepackage{multirow} \newcommand{\experimental}[1]{} \begin{document} -\title{Measuring the Tor Network\\{\large Evaluation of Client Requests to the Directories}} + +\title{Measuring the Tor Network} +\subtitle{Evaluation of Client Requests to the Directories} \author{Karsten Loesing} +\contact{karsten(a)torproject.org} +\reportid{2009-06-002\footnote{This report is mostly superseded by report 2010-10-001.}} +\date{June 25, 2009} \maketitle \begin{abstract} @@ -32,7 +33,7 @@ Further, the directories break down their observations of clients and requests b \section{Data basis} -This report is based on the measured client requests to a set of twelve directories (four directory authorities and eight directory mirrors). These twelve directories have been instrumented\footnote{More information on setting up a directory to measure these data can be found here: \url{http://archives.seul.org/or/dev/Jun-2009/msg00000.html}} to measure client requests and write them to a local file every 24 hours. These measurements have been performed between May 28 and June 25, 2009 with some directories being started later, being restarted (and therefore losing observations of the current 24-hour interval), or ending their measurements earlier. Table~\ref{tab:nodes} contains a list of these twelve directories together with their bandwidth settings. +This report is based on the measured client requests to a set of twelve directories (four directory authorities and eight directory mirrors). These twelve directories have been instrumented\footnote{More information on setting up a directory to measure these data can be found here: \url{https://lists.torproject.org/pipermail/tor-dev/2009-June/001546.html}} to measure client requests and write them to a local file every 24 hours. These measurements have been performed between May 28 and June 25, 2009 with some directories being started later, being restarted (and therefore losing observations of the current 24-hour interval), or ending their measurements earlier. Table~\ref{tab:nodes} contains a list of these twelve directories together with their bandwidth settings. \begin{table} \centering diff --git a/2009/directory-requests/tortechrep.cls b/2009/directory-requests/tortechrep.cls new file mode 120000 index 0000000..4c24db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/2009/directory-requests/tortechrep.cls @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +../../tortechrep.cls \ No newline at end of file

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[tech-reports/master] Add raw bridge-scaling report from 2012.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit 30c684cfdf462f1d8c7170f279477f0fe5aa4c73 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 19:30:55 2012 +0200 Add raw bridge-scaling report from 2012. --- 2012/bridge-scaling/.gitignore | 3 + 2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling-graph.pdf | Bin 0 -> 5906 bytes 2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling.tex | 141 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 144 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-) diff --git a/2012/bridge-scaling/.gitignore b/2012/bridge-scaling/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1eb7496 --- /dev/null +++ b/2012/bridge-scaling/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +bridge-scaling.pdf +bridge-scaling-2012-03-09.pdf + diff --git a/2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling-graph.pdf b/2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling-graph.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fc7cdbd Binary files /dev/null and b/2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling-graph.pdf differ diff --git a/2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling.tex b/2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling.tex new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6da0964 --- /dev/null +++ b/2012/bridge-scaling/bridge-scaling.tex @@ -0,0 +1,141 @@ +\documentclass{article} +\usepackage{url} +\usepackage[pdftex]{graphicx} +\usepackage{graphics} +\usepackage{color} +\begin{document} +\title{What if the Tor network had 50,000 bridges?} +\author{Karsten Loesing\\{\tt karsten(a)torproject.org}} + +\maketitle + +\section{Introduction} + +The current bridge infrastructure relies on a central bridge authority to +collect, distribute, and publish bridge relay descriptors. +There are currently 1,000 bridges running in the Tor network.\footnote{% +\url{https://metrics.torproject.org/network.html#networksize}} +We believe the current infrastructure can handle up to 10,000 bridges. +Potential performance bottlenecks include: + +\begin{itemize} +\item the bridge authority Tonga, where all (public) bridges register and +which performs periodic reachability tests to confirm that bridges are +running, +\item BridgeDB, which stores currently running bridges and hands them out +to bridge users, and +\item metrics-db, which sanitizes bridge descriptors for later analysis +like statistics on daily connecting bridge users. +\end{itemize} + +\section{Load-testing BridgeDB and metrics-db} + +We started this analysis by writing a small tool to generate sample data +for BridgeDB and metrics-db to load-test them. +This tool takes the contents from one of Tonga's bridge tarball as input, +copies them a given number of times, and overwrites the first two bytes of +relay fingerprints in every copy with 0000, 0001, etc. +The tool also fixes references between network statuses, server +descriptors, and extra-info descriptors. +This is sufficient to trick BridgeDB and metrics-db into thinking that +bridges in the copies are distinct bridges. +We used the tool to generate tarballs with 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 times +as many bridge descriptors in them. + +In the next step we fed the tarballs into BridgeDB and metrics-db. +BridgeDB reads the network statuses and server descriptors from the latest +tarball and writes them to a local database. +metrics-db sanitizes two half-hourly created tarballs every hour, +establishes an internal mapping between descriptors, and writes sanitized +descriptors with fixed references to disk. +Figure~\ref{fig:bridgescaling} shows the results. + +\begin{figure}[t] +\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{bridge-scaling-graph.pdf} +\caption{Results from load-testing BridgeDB and metrics-db} +\label{fig:bridgescaling} +\end{figure} + +The upper graph shows how the tarballs grow in size with more bridge +descriptors in them. +This growth is, unsurprisingly, linear. +One thing to keep in mind here is that bandwidth and storage requirements +to the hosts transferring and storing bridge tarballs are growing with the +tarballs. +We'll want to pay extra attention to disk space running out on those +hosts. +These tarballs have substantial overlap. +If we have tens of thousands of descriptors, we would want to get smarter +at sending diffs over to BridgeDB and metrics-db.\footnote{See comment at +\url{https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/4499#comment:7}} + +The middle graph shows how long BridgeDB takes to load descriptors from a +tarball. +This graph is linear, too, which indicates that BridgeDB can handle an +increase in the number of bridges pretty well. + +The lower graph shows how metrics-db can or cannot handle more bridges. +The growth is slightly worse than linear. +In any case, the absolute time required to handle 25K bridges is worrisome +(we didn't try 50K). +metrics-db runs in an hourly cronjob, and if that cronjob doesn't finish +within 1 hour, we cannot start the next run and will be missing some data. +We might have to sanitize bridge descriptors in a different thread or +process than the one that fetches all the other metrics data. +We can also look into other Java libraries to handle .gz-compressed files +that are faster than the one we're using. + +\section{Looking at concurrency in BridgeDB} + +While performing the load-test on BridgeDB we were wondering whether it +can serve client requests while loading bridges. +Turns out BridgeDB's interaction with users freezes while it's reading a +new set of data. +This isn't that much of a problem with a few hundred bridges and unlucky +clients having to wait 10 seconds for their bridges. +But it becomes a problem when BridgeDB is busy for a minute or two, twice +an hour. +We started discussing importing bridges into BridgeDB in a separate thread +and database transaction.\footnote{% +\url{https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/5232}} + +\section{Scalability of the bridge authority Tonga} + +We left out the most important part of this analysis: +can Tonga, or more generally, a single bridge authority handle this +increase in bridges? +Tonga still does a reachability test on each bridge every 21~minutes or so. +Eventually the number of TLS handshakes it's doing will overwhelm its +CPU.\footnote{% +\url{https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/4499#comment:7}} + +We're not sure how to test such a setting, or at least without running 50K +bridges in a private network. +We could imagine this requires some more sophisticated sample data +generation including getting the crypto right and then talking to Tonga's +DirPort. +We didn't find an easy way to test this. + +A possible fix would be to increase the reachability test interval from +21~minutes to some higher value. +A long-term fix would be to come up with a design that has more than one +single bridge authority. + +\section{Conclusion} + +In conclusion, we found that a massive increase in bridges in the Tor +network by a factor of 10 to 50 can be harmful to Tor's infrastructure. +We identified possible bottlenecks: Tonga's reachability test interval, +bridge tarball sizes for transfer between Tonga and BridgeDB/metrics-db, +loading bridges into BridgeDB, and sanitizing bridges in metrics-db. + +During this analysis we discovered a design bug in BridgeDB which makes it +freeze while reading new bridge descriptors. +This bug should be fixed regardless of scaling to 10K--50K bridges, +because it already affects users. +The suggested changes to Tonga, transfering tarballs between hosts, and +changes to metrics-db can be postponed until there's an actual problem, +not just a theoretical one. + +\end{document} +

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[tech-reports/master] Update dirarch report to new style.
by karsten＠torproject.org 07 Aug '12

07 Aug '12

commit 14967e1e3adbcd3e432ad7c94ebabe949db256c8 Author: Karsten Loesing <karsten.loesing(a)gmx.net> Date: Tue Aug 7 17:21:42 2012 +0200 Update dirarch report to new style. --- 2009/dirarch/dirarch.tex | 27 +++++++++++++++++---------- 2009/dirarch/tortechrep.cls | 1 + 2 files changed, 18 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/2009/dirarch/dirarch.tex b/2009/dirarch/dirarch.tex index 58a0a6f..82ccc76 100644 --- a/2009/dirarch/dirarch.tex +++ b/2009/dirarch/dirarch.tex @@ -1,29 +1,36 @@ -\documentclass{article} -\usepackage{url} -\usepackage[dvips]{graphicx} -\usepackage{graphics} -\usepackage{color} +\documentclass{tortechrep} +\usepackage{graphicx} \begin{document} -\title{Measuring the Tor Network\\{\large Evaluation of Relays from Public Directory Data}} + +\title{Measuring the Tor Network} +\subtitle{Evaluation of Relays from Public Directory Data} \author{Karsten Loesing} +\contact{karsten(a)torproject.org} +\reportid{2009-06-001\footnote{This report is superseded by: Karsten +Loesing. Measuring the Tor Network from Public Directory Information. +2nd Hot Topics in Privacy Enhancing Technologies (HotPETs 2009), Seattle, +WA, USA, August 2009.}} \date{June 22, 2009} \maketitle \begin{abstract} This document contains the results of an evaluation of the directory archives containing network status consensuses, router descriptors, and extra-info documents of relays from February 2006 to June 2009. -All scripts and a howto for performing the evaluation can be found under: \url{git://git.torproject.org/git/metrics/} +%All scripts and a howto for performing the evaluation can be found under: \url{git://git.torproject.org/git/metrics/} \end{abstract} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{relayflags.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.72\textwidth]{relayflags.pdf} \caption{The lines represent the number of \emph{running} relays with certain flags as listed in network status consensuses from February 2006 to June 2009. This diagram can be useful to decide whether conditions to assign certain flags might require modification. It is questionable whether the Fast flag is assigned too often to make a good distinction between fast and slow nodes. The volatility of the Stable and Guard flags might be the result of problems in the directory voting process. The average number of guard nodes has become rather low, given that these nodes need to push one third of all user traffic; changes to the requirements for becoming a guard node should be considered.} \end{figure} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{platforms.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.72\textwidth]{platforms.pdf} \caption{This graph visualizes the version life cycle of Tor relays as declared in router descriptors. Each version life cycle can be subdivided into an alpha and release candidate phase (April 2006 to April 2007 for 0.1.2.x), a stable phase (April 2007 to July 2008), and an out-of-date phase (July 2008 until today). For all versions there is an upper limit of approximately 200 relay operators running alpha or release candidate versions. There is no visible increase when versions are moved from alpha state to release candidate state (March 2, 2007 for 0.1.2.x, February 24, 2008 for 0.2.0.x). The stable phases for all versions show that it can take months until relay operators switch from an out-of-date version to the current stable version (April 2007 to end of 2007 for 0.2.0.x). Accordingly, the out-of-date phases show that old versions are used even years after new stable versions are available (0.1.1.x still in use in 2009). These results indicate that a semi-automatic up dating mechanism is desirable.} \end{figure} \begin{figure} -\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{advertised.pdf} +\centering +\includegraphics[width=0.72\textwidth]{advertised.pdf} \caption{Relays report their observed bandwidth capacity and bandwidth usage to the directories. The bandwidth capacity (green line) is the maximum bandwidth as observed over any ten seconds in the past day. Bandwidth usage (red line) is calculated as the total size of relayed bytes in 15-minutes intervals over the past day. The graph shows that roughly half of the available bandwidth capacity is used by clients---and that the other half remains unused. Further investigations should focus on relays which leave most of their bandwidth capacity unused. Either the approach to measure capacity by 10-seconds bandwidth peaks is infeasible, or clients do not make us of the available bandwidth sufficiently.} \label{fig:advertised} \end{figure} diff --git a/2009/dirarch/tortechrep.cls b/2009/dirarch/tortechrep.cls new file mode 120000 index 0000000..4c24db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/2009/dirarch/tortechrep.cls @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +../../tortechrep.cls \ No newline at end of file

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