[tor-bugs] #20216 [Metrics/Censorship analysis]: Iran blocking of direct users, 2016-08 and 2016-09

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#20216: Iran blocking of direct users, 2016-08 and 2016-09
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 Reporter:  dcf                          |          Owner:
     Type:  defect                       |         Status:  new
 Priority:  Medium                       |      Milestone:
Component:  Metrics/Censorship analysis  |        Version:
 Severity:  Normal                       |     Resolution:
 Keywords:  censorship block             |  Actual Points:
Parent ID:                               |         Points:
 Reviewer:                               |        Sponsor:
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Description changed by dcf:

Old description:

> Direct users in Iran dropped from 8,000 to 2,000 between 2016-08-20 and
> 2016-08-23. The numbers recovered to 4,000, then crashed to 400 on
> 2016-09-03 and 2016-09-04.
>   [[Image(userstats-relay-country-ir-2016-06-24-2016-09-22-off.png)]]
> [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-relay-
> country.html?start=2016-06-24&end=2016-09-22&country=ir&events=off link]
>
> Looking at bridge users, there is an increase right around 2016-08-20,
> the time of the first blocking, then an abrupt return to previous levels
> around 2016-09-03, the time of the second blocking.
>   [[Image(userstats-bridge-combined-ir-2016-06-24-2016-09-22.png)]]
> [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-bridge-
> country.html?start=2016-06-24&end=2016-09-22&country=ir link]
>
> Looking at the graph of bridge users by transport, obfs4 continued
> working while obfs3 and vanilla were blocked.
>   [[Image(userstats-bridge-country-ir-2016-06-24-2016-09-22.png)]]
> [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-bridge-
> combined.html?start=2016-06-24&end=2016-09-22&country=ir link]

New description:

 Direct users in Iran dropped from 8,000 to 2,000 between 2016-08-20 and
 2016-08-23. The numbers recovered to 4,000, then crashed to 400 on
 2016-09-03 and 2016-09-04.
   [[Image(userstats-relay-country-ir-2016-06-24-2016-09-22-off.png)]]
 [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-relay-
 country.html?start=2016-06-24&end=2016-09-22&country=ir&events=off link]

 ''Edit 2016-10-04: the bridge changes below, on further investigation,
 appear to be unrelated to anything done by Iran.''

 Looking at bridge users, there is an increase right around 2016-08-20, the
 time of the first blocking, then an abrupt return to previous levels
 around 2016-09-03, the time of the second blocking.
   [[Image(userstats-bridge-country-ir-2016-06-24-2016-09-22.png)]]
 [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-bridge-
 country.html?start=2016-06-24&end=2016-09-22&country=ir link]

 Looking at the graph of bridge users by transport, obfs4 continued working
 while obfs3 and vanilla were blocked.
   [[Image(userstats-bridge-combined-ir-2016-06-24-2016-09-22.png)]]
 [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-bridge-
 combined.html?start=2016-06-24&end=2016-09-22&country=ir link]

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Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/20216#comment:10>
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