[tor-bugs] #20495 [Metrics/Censorship analysis]: Unexplained drop in meek users, 2016-10-19 to 2016-11-10 (was: China blocking of meek, 2016-10-19)

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#20495: Unexplained drop in meek users, 2016-10-19 to 2016-11-10
-----------------------------------------+---------------------
 Reporter:  dcf                          |          Owner:
     Type:  task                         |         Status:  new
 Priority:  Medium                       |      Milestone:
Component:  Metrics/Censorship analysis  |        Version:
 Severity:  Normal                       |     Resolution:
 Keywords:  cn us ru de gb meek          |  Actual Points:
Parent ID:                               |         Points:
 Reviewer:                               |        Sponsor:
-----------------------------------------+---------------------
Changes (by dcf):

 * keywords:  censorship block cn meek => cn us ru de gb meek


Comment:

 Since 2016-11-10, the count of meek users has mysteriously returned to
 previous levels, not only in China but in the other places mentioned in
 comment:5.

 This no longer looks like a censorship event to me, though I don't know
 what it could be.

 [[Image(userstats-bridge-country-cn-2016-07-30-2016-11-15.png)]]
 [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-bridge-
 country.html?start=2016-07-30&country=cn link]

 [[Image(userstats-bridge-combined-cn-2016-07-30-2016-11-15.png)]]
 [https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-bridge-
 combined.html?start=2016-07-30&end=2016-11-15&country=cn link]

 [[Image(meek-by-country-20161114.png)]]

 One possible clue is that
 [https://atlas.torproject.org/#details/F4AD82B2032EDEF6C02C5A529C42CFAFE516564D
 TorLandMeek], the meek-amazon bridge, currently has a last restarted date
 of 2016-11-09 22:11:20, which is close to when the numbers returned to
 normal. However, TorLandMeek doesn't show a decrease in users during this
 time.

--
Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/20495#comment:7>
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