[tor-bugs] #7241 [Metrics Utilities]: Visualize how quickly the Tor network changes

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#7241: Visualize how quickly the Tor network changes
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 Reporter:  asn                |          Owner:       
     Type:  task               |         Status:  new  
 Priority:  normal             |      Milestone:       
Component:  Metrics Utilities  |        Version:       
 Keywords:                     |         Parent:  #2681
   Points:                     |   Actualpoints:       
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 I'm still not sure if this is a good metric for #2681, but Sathya asked me
 the idea in a metrics ticket some days ago:

 Just brainstorming here, but I wonder if some kind of metric on how
 quickly the Tor network changes would help us decide if 3 days is a better
 interval than 5 days.
 By "how quickly the Tor network changes", I mean that if you take a
 consensus X from 3 days ago and a consensus Y from today, what's the
 percentage of routers in Y that are also in X (based on identity key)?

 Such a metric could be a set of probability distributions that describe
 how likely it is for the Tor network to change by a specific amount in X
 days.
 So, for example, the probability distributions would tell us stuff like
 "Based on previous data, the Tor network has 40% chance to change by 20%,
 in five days." or "The Tor network has 80% chance to change by less than
 5%, in one day." or "The Tor network has 40% chance to change by 35%, in
 two months".

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Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/7241>
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