[metrics-bugs] #30636 [Metrics/Analysis]: Something funky is going in Iran: numbers of relay users flies off to 400K

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#30636: Something funky is going in Iran: numbers of relay users flies off to 400K
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 Reporter:  cypherpunks       |          Owner:  metrics-team
     Type:  task              |         Status:  new
 Priority:  Medium            |      Milestone:
Component:  Metrics/Analysis  |        Version:
 Severity:  Normal            |     Resolution:
 Keywords:  ir                |  Actual Points:
Parent ID:                    |         Points:
 Reviewer:                    |        Sponsor:
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Comment (by difautsch):

 So, according to a report released on May 30 from Iran Human Rights Watch,
 the Iranian government is supporting the development of a proxy tool,
 MTProto, so they can better 'manage' censorship circumvention.
 https://iranhumanrights.org/2019/05/why-is-the-iranian-government-aiding-
 the-development-of-a-censorship-circumvention-tool/

 I believe that the new Tor users were previously using MTProto and then
 realized it's not keeping their privacy from the Iranian gov.
 My evidence is a decline in 'Post Reach' on May 15, the same day Iranian
 Tor users began to grow:
 https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggin9dmkobowkve/MTProto%20Post%20Reach.png?dl=0

 I don't know what specifically triggered the switch from MTP to Tor, but a
 significant and sustained drop of Post Reach is definitely suspicious.

 You can find all the metrics here: https://tgstat.com/channel/@MTProxies

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Ticket URL: <https://trac.torproject.org/projects/tor/ticket/30636#comment:17>
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